Thread by @SabFis3

Some thoughts about why the Kremlin could miscalculate so catastrophically on basically everything: the steadfastness of the UA leadership, the resolve to resist in UA society, UA military capabilities, and their own capability to figth this war.
I see three factors:🧵1/11

1. There is a blatant lack of knowledge and understanding in RU about political and societal developments in neighbouring countries. They used to be part of the Soviet Union until 1991. After independence RU was first too poor to fund proper research on basically anything. 2/11

In the 2000s, attention shifted to other topics, notably China/Asia. I remember the director of a big research institute telling my once that their attempt to create a department about Russia’s immediate neighbourhood was met with indifference if not ridicule. 3/11

After the annexation of Crimea, links with Ukraine were severed on many levels. The RU research community lost contact almost entirely, people stopped traveling to UA, doing research there. They got their information from the internet, secondary sources, and sometimes 4/11

meeting with Ukrainian colleagues in international conferences – and that was that. Most were unable to get real insights into the profound changes Ukrainian society went through over the past 10 years.
2. Lack of knowledge and understanding reinforced neo-imperialist 5/11

thinking about Ukraine (and other states and societies in RU’s neighbourhood). Because the foreign policy elite in Moscow not longer interacted with their UA counterparts, their belief that UA lacked agency of its own and was but a docile instrument in the hands of the West 6/11

to undermine RU influence and very existence became more and more entrenched – and disconnected from realities in Ukraine. One could also say that neo-imperialist arrogance blindfolded Russia’s decision makers up to Vladimir Putin and completely misdirected RU policy. 7/11

3. The power vertical, and Vladimir Putin’s resistance to accept advice blocked out the few people who still had an understanding of what was going on in Ukraine. Over time and with domestic tensions rising after the annexation of Crimea, 8/11

the situation of those who could have told a different story became more and more precarious. This development now culminates in another harsh wave of censorship and repressions we see unfold against independent media and civil society actors who criticise RU’s war. 9/11

The combination of incompetence, ideological blindness and authoritarianism led Putin and his supporters to believe that this war was possible (even legitimate?) and winnable in a short time. But they don't pay the price. 10/11

It is the UA people, UA soldiers, RU soldiers and RU society who are paying this horrific price with their lives and their livelihoods. I truly hope that the perpetrators will be held accountable for this catastrophe. 11/End
#RussiaInvadesUkraine
#WestandbyUkraine