Putin's war on Ukraine has entered its next phase, one of destruction and slaughter of civilians. It is also a part of Putin's World War, a war on the civilized world of international law, democracy, and any threat to his power, which he declared long ago. 1/13
The free world's denial of this war and decades of appeasement allowed Putin to threaten and conquer abroad while turning Russia into a police state. The price to stop him has gone up every time he has advanced unchallenged. Ukrainians are paying that price in blood. 2/13
If Putin is not stopped now, not prevented from destroying Ukraine and committing genocide against its people, there will be a next time and it will be in NATO, with an unprecedented nuclear threat. Do not let Putin escalate again in a time and place of his choosing. 3/13
Everyone is quoting my 2015 book Winter Is Coming and saying I was right & "listen to Kasparov". But will you still listen when I say this will take sacrifice and risk? Not just wheat and gas prices, not just empty chalets and unemployed lobbyists. Easy is over. 4/13
Or will you say that I am irrational, blinded by hate, as I heard in 2015? I hope not. Putin must be stopped because the unthinkable is now the possible. The world has awoken, at long last, and many steps I recommended last week are happening. It's not enough. 5/13
My recommendations:
1 I cannot demand NATO attack Russian forces directly, but I can speak from history & knowledge of Putin. A dictator who has already crossed every line cannot be prevented from escalating with restraint. If he destroys Ukraine, he won't stop. 6/13
2 We are not trying to appeal to the murderer in his bunker in the Urals. The message is to those who carry out his orders. Will they? Do they all wish to die? Putin will escalate anyway if he is not stopped now. He will, as he always has before, & the price will be higher. 7/13
3 Send Russia to the technological stone age. No support, no parts, no services. Oil boycotts aren't necessary if oil tech is unavailable. The industry will grind to a halt. This means a war footing in sacrificing, retooling & increasing production to substitute. It's war. 8/13
4 It's always tragic that ordinary people suffer, but they are not being bombed in their homes like Ukrainians. Every element of Russian society that can pressure Putin must know they have to choose between him & everything else. Some will cling to him, but for how long? 9/13
5 Clear message to Russian generals that they will suffer annihilation if one inch of NATO is touched. Send UKR every weapon, including the jets that have been blocked, as if Putin cares about the difference. Stop guessing about his thoughts and do what is needed. 10/13
6 Every day Ukraine endures gives opportunity to communicate this catastrophe to the only people who can really stop Putin, the Russian people, from oligarchs to commanders to protestors. Let all in the power vertical know they will be treated as war criminals. They are. 11/13
7 Leave nothing in reserve. Speed is of the essence to stop payments and catch them and their assets before they hide. Threats like "he doesn't know what's coming" don't work if Putin doesn't believe you. Show him. And show Russians there is no way back with Putin. Never. 12/13
8 Root out the corrupt politicians, businessmen & dark money that corrupted a generation to turn a blind eye or serve authoritarian regimes. Follow the donations, payments, gifts, influence. Hold them accountable. Down with Putin & his appeasers, glory to Ukraine. 13/13
PS To all officials and media: STOP CALLING PUTIN 'PRESIDENT'! He's a dictator. Words have power. He does not deserve a democratic title. Fuck your style guide. "Russian dictator Vladimir Putin".
[ My first set of recommendations from Feb 24. Most were already made in 2014.
We are witnessing, literally watching live, Putin commit genocide on an industrial scale in Ukraine while the most powerful military alliance in history stands aside. It's impossible not to be emotional, but let us also be rational and focus our rage on the facts. 1/13
Putin once again told Macron to go to hell, no surprise. NATO/EU has already told Putin they won't touch his forces, so why should he listen? Russia is lifting target limitations and the death toll is rising every hour and lack of water & electricity is critical. 2/13
No treaty forbids NATO nations from fighting to defend in Ukraine. It's a choice based on the risk of Putin going nuclear, many say. That arming Ukrainians is an acceptable risk of WWIII & the citizenship of the pilot or soldier changes Putin's nuclear calculus, or NATO's. 3/13
Glad Biden started w Ukraine and his words were fine, if brief considering the stakes. It’s his actions that have lagged, both in targeting the oligarchs and supporting Ukraine. Ukraine doesn’t have time and Putin is escalating by the hour.
My worry is that Putin doesn’t believe Biden. After a summit and a couple of calls, Putin clearly doesn’t think Biden is a serious threat. He thought the same about Europe, and is being proved wrong. I hope Biden does it too, but it remains to be seen.
Putin declared war on the US and the world order it represents long ago. Ukraine is the military target of that war now, but election interference, hacking, disinformation, etc are still warfare. US sacrifice & commitment are necessary and Biden should communicate that.
This plea coincides with Russian escalation against civilians in Ukraine. Putin already started the war and he will keep escalating until he is stopped. "Close the sky" & ensure Russian commanders know their lives are at stake for following Putin's orders.
Biden and Europe must do more. Russia must be completely cut off. Diplomatically, economically. From ordinary Russians to the military to the intelligence services to the oligarchs and their corrupt connections, they must all see Putin as toxic to their interests.
"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences … We cannot avoid this period; we are in it now." Churchill, Nov 12 1936
I'm glad to see many items on my Stop Putin Checklist are being ticked off. Putin is being isolated in a way that ordinary Russians cannot ignore, despite the blizzard of propaganda that will grow more desperate and obvious every day.
The price to remove Putin will be high because it has gone up every time he went unpunished before. The price will be borne by Russians, Americans, & Europeans. But Ukraine is paying in blood and their sacrifice must not be in vain. We cannot return to the status quo.
How does Putin fall? A million Russians in Red Square? A palace coup of military or security? An oligarch's rebellion? All of the above. It must be apparent that Putin is an obstacle to their goals, whether of power, liberty, or prosperity.
Consider the horror of a city of over 3 million besieged by modern weapons of war, by an army directed by a vicious dictator with no regard for human life. And knowing the mightiest nations on Earth have decided not to save you.
Ukraine's only sin was to try to join the free world of democracy and prosperity. This was unforgivable to Putin. But instead of being embraced and protected by the nations it wished to join, they kept Ukraine at arm's length and did business with its tormentor.
It has taken a massive war to remind Europe and America that fighting for freedom is a global battle, and that giving it up inevitably weakens the forces of democracy at home. Ukraine is being sacrificed to teach this lesson once again.
I will repeat that Putin does not care at all what happens to Russia or Russians and he never has. He thinks about staying in power today and tomorrow. That's it. You can never say a dictator has miscalculated as long as he's still the dictator.
Now that Putin's original plan to take Kyiv quickly, assuming the UKR military would collapse & Zelensky would flee, has failed, he will lift all restrictions on destruction in the capital in order to take it all costs.
Obviously they weren't avoiding civilian casualties before, but weren't seeking them. Now no more precision, just destruction and terror. Putin doesn't care "how it looks" to the world or to Ukrainians or to Russians if they cannot make him pay.