At this point, the costs of the invasion are locked in for Russia. Even if Moscow finds some sort of compromise, government sanctions will remain as will the blacklisting from private corporations. This likely affects Russia's cost-benefit analysis of continuing the war.
https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1499102820011843587
Thus far, Russia hasn't achieved any significant political goals but has sustained most of the costs, so it has an incentive to continue the conflict. I think the real risk will be from growing domestic disapproval as the war continues, especially if Russia levels Kyiv. 2/
I don't think the domestic disapproval threat is that high yet, but it will likely grow as the way of life for most Russians is disrupted. Putin's decision to not mobilize the population for this conflict will also likely become a problem as it drags on.3/
https://twitter.com/janedvidek/status/1498723248183382020
Ultimately, dogged resistance from Zelensky and Ukrainians has made Russia's political goals very difficult to achieve. If Russia goes scorched earth on Kharkiv and Kyiv, it is hard to see how it could install a leader who would receive any support or approval from Ukrainians. 4/
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