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More from @RALee85

Rob Lee

@RALee85

Mar 4

The best thing the US can do to help Ukraine is to convince Putin that de-escalation is a less costly and risky option for him than continuing the war. Calling for regime change or assassination does the opposite.

NATO arms exports are shaping Russia's cost-benefit analysis by making the war more costly. These comments will just become fodder for Russian news to argue that regime change has always been the US' goal, which isn't true.

Russia is sustaining far higher casualties than in any of the previous wars under Putin and the Russian economy is suffering increasingly severe disruptions. That will likely lead to a domestic backlash. The question is whether that will happen before Russia levels Kyiv.

Read 4 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

Mar 4

Video of fighting at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
t.me/dvish_alive/88…

Another video from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. 2/
t.me/rybar/27195

https://twitter.com/brenna__smith/status/1499569290730684416

https://twitter.com/brenna__smith/status/1499569290730684416

Read 6 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

Mar 2

https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1499102820011843587

At this point, the costs of the invasion are locked in for Russia. Even if Moscow finds some sort of compromise, government sanctions will remain as will the blacklisting from private corporations. This likely affects Russia's cost-benefit analysis of continuing the war.

https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1499102820011843587

Thus far, Russia hasn't achieved any significant political goals but has sustained most of the costs, so it has an incentive to continue the conflict. I think the real risk will be from growing domestic disapproval as the war continues, especially if Russia levels Kyiv. 2/

https://twitter.com/janedvidek/status/1498723248183382020

I don't think the domestic disapproval threat is that high yet, but it will likely grow as the way of life for most Russians is disrupted. Putin's decision to not mobilize the population for this conflict will also likely become a problem as it drags on.3/

https://twitter.com/janedvidek/status/1498723248183382020

Read 4 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

Mar 1

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1493150061714366465

Looking back at this tweet, the best explanation is that many of these soldiers, including their officers, were not aware that an invasion was imminent, which would explain their behavior and the poor operational security.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1493150061714366465

There is this bizarre disconnect where the threat of a Russian invasion was very clear from the outside, but, apparently for OPSEC reasons, much of the military was not informed, which limited their ability to plan, prepare, and coordinate for this complex operation. 2/

As an example, I heard an anecdote that the soldiers deployed to Belarus had return tickets and were under the impression that they would leave once the exercise was over. That clearly wasn't the plan, but Russia's senior leadership kept their soldiers under that impression. 3/

Read 4 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

Mar 1

There was reportedly an explosion at Russia’s Taganrog Airbase in Rostov, possibly from a Ukrainian Tochka-U tactical ballistic missile. An Il-76 transport aircraft appears to be on fire.
t.me/milinfolive/77…