1. I've been thinking about this all day and I came to the conclusion that its time for the Biden Admin to consider opening up the CRP for cropping in 2022. Emergency situations sometime require extraordinary responses. Let me explain my logic. 
2. Starting point is obviously what you think is going to happen in the Ukrainian War. I only see one way that the war ends quickly and without massive and continuing disruption of Black Sea agricultural production and exports. That one way is a coup against Putin.
3. A coup against Putin is possible but the odds seem pretty small to me. So I don't see Putin stopping prosecution of the war. Nor do I see the Ukrainians quitting anytime soon, even if they lose Kyiv. Obviously I am not a military analyst. Just the way I see it.
4. So my assumption is that the Ukrainian War is going to continue for some time and as a result the sanctions against Russia will continue. This leads to the question of just how big of a supply shock this is likely to be for the global grain markets.
5. I am convinced it is going to be the biggest supply shock to global grain markets in my lifetime. As just one data point. It has been reported that there are 600 million bushels of corn contracted for export that is currently trapped in Ukraine. And what about 2022 prod?
6. I truly hope I am entirely wrong. But if I am not then we have to begin thinking about some responses that would have been unthinkable just a little over a week ago. There are potentially tens of millions of acres of grain production at stake right now.
7. This leads me to conclude that the world desperately needs additional acres for grain production in 2022. Basically nothing that can be done in the short-run except to run up the price of grain high enough to ration demand. Market will work but could take wildly high price
8. The only policy lever that I can think of in the hands of the US gov't is to open up the Conservation Reserve Program for cropping on a one-year emergency basis. Here is a map from 2019 of CRP acreage in the US. Latest Jan 22 report says 22.1 million acres now.
9. While the name is "Conservation Reserve Program" from the very beginning the CRP has had a very strong supply control purpose. My own view is that it has always been the main purpose. But I'm an old farm policy cynic.
10. To my way of thinking there are up to 22 million acres of land available in the US that was at one point cropped. Had to be cropped to get enrolled. I realize a chunk cannot be easily put back into production, especially in a month or two.
11. So my simple proposal is to let every CRP acre be eligible for cropping for 2022 and only 2022. No interruption of payments or contracts. Just change the rules on an emergency basis so it can be cropped if a farmer wants to risk it this year.
12. Maybe my proposal is simply not possible legally and practically, but I think it is worth at least putting it on the table. Take it away @SethMeyerMU, @SecVilsack, @GrassleyWorks!
@SethMeyerMU @SecVilsack @GrassleyWorks 13. For those unfamiliar with the CRP here is a great history of the program fsa.usda.gov/Assets/USDA-FS…
@SethMeyerMU @SecVilsack @GrassleyWorks 14. A nice and quick overview of the CRP program is available here on FDD farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2017/05/histor…
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