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Mahmudur Rahman, PhD Profile picture
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Mar 3 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Here we see some interesting patterns. Lower age groups died (all deaths) at a higher rate during the summer (2021) wave. We have seen from Israel and UK data that during a surge VE is near zero, zero, or negative.
It could be possible that COVID spread through vaccines, however, unvaxd younger aged suffered the most because of lower vaccine uptake. Or, it could also be possible that vaccine caused more adverse effects to younger age people during a surge.
Case spreading due to vaccination in UK
From Israel data. mahmudurrahman.substack.com/p/israel-data-…
Similar arguments for kids' hospitalizations. mahmudurrahman.substack.com/p/why-are-so-m…

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Mahmudur Rahman, PhD Profile picture
Mar 3
After vaccine rollout in USA, the younger age group suffered (especially 25-44 yrs) more than the older age group. The younger age group survived better during the last winter wave, however, in the summer wave (2021) they died at a higher rate.
Data: data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Co… ImageImage
It could also be possible that the summer and winter impacted differently on different age groups.
This is from Florida. Clearly, the younger age group had a very bad summer wave. ImageImage
Read 10 tweets
Mahmudur Rahman, PhD Profile picture
Feb 19
This is from #Florida. Left plots compare summer cases (2020 vs 2021) and right plots compare Winter deaths. The bottom row is without vaccination. The top row is with #vaccination. Counties are sorted from lowest (left) to highest (right) vax %. Image
Excess deaths in Summer 2021 (with vaccine) in Florida were 75% higher than excess deaths in Summer 2020 (no vaccine).
After removing vaccination data. Counties are sorted from lowest to highest vaccination rate (from left to right). It is very likely that vaccination causes (which helps in virus spreading) more deaths to unvaccinated people. Image
Read 4 tweets
Mahmudur Rahman, PhD Profile picture
Jan 19
Rwanda and Burundi are neighboring countries. However their weather is slightly different. Burundi's summer is hotter than that of Rwanda. With AC, Rwanda's indoor can easily be virus fav while Burundi's indoor may not. Rwanda vaccinated a lot compared to Burundi.
However, Covid death is higher in Rwanda than Burundi which is expected because of virus fav weather in Rwanda. However, vaccine couldn't make any positive impact in Rwanda. Almost same peak from summer's death surge in last year.
Omicron surge in Rwanda did not take the same pattern like USA. This surge is similar to the previous surges while US omicron is way higher from the previous surges. Therefore, we cannot claim that Omicron is highly transmissible than other variants. reuters.com/business/healt…
Read 5 tweets
Mahmudur Rahman, PhD Profile picture
Jan 18
This study shows that vaccine is alive just because of statistics. When you see a bad picture for 1 dose vaxd people, you will expect a better picture after 2 doses. Because COVID vulnerable are isolated during 1 dose. Therefore, unvaxd and 2 dose vaxd groups are not comparable.
Therefore, it is important to compare unvaxd and vaxd (who receive at least one dose, forget about 14 days protection duration).

In this study, total infected individuals: 951
1 dose vaxd: 340
2 dose vaxd: 294
total vaxd (at least one dose): 634
unvaxd: 317
According to their data, 69% (219) reported at least 1 symptom among unvaxd while 66% (419) reported among vaxd (>1 dose).

But, they reported:
Among the unvaxd, 69% reported at least one symptom vs. 57% among those who received 2 doses & 74% among those who received 1 dose only
Read 5 tweets
Mahmudur Rahman, PhD Profile picture
Jan 17
My best plots over the course of the pandemic.

Plot #1 COVID cases are strongly modulated by indoor wet bulb temp in USA
Plot #2
Based on UK death data in 2021, COVID and all causes of deaths are higher among vaccinated people (>60 yr old) during Jan-Feb (with my conservative calculation, it's hard to get exact info)

Plot #3
COVID cases are modulated by Wet bulb temp in India. There are more to learn such as the role of other interventions based on climate conditions!
Read 6 tweets
Mahmudur Rahman, PhD Profile picture
Jan 9
While my conclusion could be right, but I deleted my previous thread because the date interval does not represent that they got sick during that time. This was the date for the first vaccine doses. But it shows that people who got the first doses during winter became sicker. ImageImage
Their studies have a few anomalies as well. In the supplementary document, they showed one-dose vaccinated patient's data endpoint as 8/27/2021. But in Table 1 (main article), the end date is shown as of 9/16/2021. # of the final analytical sample also differs from Table 1. Image
The article link:

jamanetwork.com/journals/jamai…
Read 8 tweets

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