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Faisal Islam Profile picture
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Mar 3 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Ukraine conflict: Growing numbers of firms pull back from Russia bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
NEW:

London Stock Exchange suspends trading in 20 Russian firm’s London listings, many of which have already collapsed in value… including:

Novatek
Gazprom
Lukoil
Severstal
Rosneft
Sberbank Image
Rouble at new record lows versus dollar this morning 117 roubles to a dollar, or one rouble worth less than one cent, about 0.8 of one. Image
Wholesale gas prices for UK went even higher yesterday 463 per therm about half an hour ago - just below intraday all time high… as some traders shun Russian gas, traders and tankers… chart via @Refinitiv Image
NEW Russian rosneft oligarch Igor Sechin yacht seized, says French finance minister… after German’s seized Usmanov’s yacht
Should be noted, that one reason eg Germany can seize oligarchs’ yachts, is because, disproportionately, German industry has made significant sums of money in building these space age floating displays and stores of wealth & power, that can quickly be transferred to open seas…
NEW UK Foreign Secretary @trussliz adds Alisher Usmanov and Igor Shuvalov to sanctions list…

Usmanov was involved in British football and had his yacht seized in Germany this morning.

Shuvalov runs development bank VEB, and is a former deputy PM and G8 Sherpa.
Long ago, I recall Igor Shuvalov did his briefing for the G8 St Petersburg summit at the FCO, as Putin’s sherpa. 14 years on, unthinkable that Russia would be in the G8 let alone hosting it’s main summit, and Shuvalov sanctioned by Foreign Office.

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More from @faisalislam

Faisal Islam Profile picture
Mar 5
Ukrainian civilian protests in Kherson against Russian occupation…

There simply aren’t enough Russian forces to occupy Ukraine… let me explain with reference to, errr, Lehman Brothers…
historical study (2004) done by top economists at Lehman Bros, but never published, because it correctly anticipated the difficulties for the USA in Iraq and Afghanistan…

Post WW2 ratio of occupying force to population needs to be above 20 per thousand population, probs 40… Image
The report looked at “force ratios” including in Malaya, N. Ireland, Bosnia, and Kosovo. Other operations, notably Algeria and South Vietnam – “failed even with a force ratio of between 20 and 40. In Iraq, the troop force ratio is around 6.5, and in Afghanistan around 0.8”… Image
Read 9 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
Mar 4
NEW

UK Wholesale gas price reaches a totally unprecedented record of 508 pence per therm - unthinkable.

20 year chart below - more typically 50p a therm. Image
For reference - an average price over the reference period of £3.20 would, industry insiders tell me, lead to an average household dual fuel bill of £3,000 per year, £250 a month… that looks possible.

£200 a month looks likely.

£300 a month not impossible.

Staggering sums.
That would be under the cap on unit prices that is now almost certain to be raised again in October. The rise in October on course to be of same order, maybe a little less, but plausibly a lot more, than the record one already causing concern next month.
Read 4 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
Mar 4
85000 people currently watching what appears to be the live YouTube webcam of the Zaporizhia nuclear power station, biggest in Ukraine, but I really hope it isn’t…
It’s so off the scale insane that anyone, even the maddest of despots of the most failed state in history, would permit engagement of shells or RPGs at a massive nuclear power station, that one has to assume it is not happening, and there is some other explanation…
Ukrainian Foreign minister:
Read 5 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
Mar 2
Important work being done by my colleagues at @bbcrussian and @bbcukranian …. Eg, reporting Zelinskyy speech to Russian audience, and pictures of the devastation in Kharkiv …
And @bbcukrainian
And my colleagues at @BBCMonitoring watching what Russia is being told…

bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Read 5 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
Mar 2
NEW Kasyanov, @MKasyanov Putin’s first PM, when he brought Russia out of post Soviet transition financial chaos, tells Martha on @BBCr4today Central Bank sanctions mean rouble can’t be supported, now German ministers say ready to stop purchasing gas -means disaster for Russia
NEW UK wholesale gas price now back up to 397p a therm, close to freakish peak in Autumn, had settled below £2 before invasion, normally 60ishp. Pushes up avg price, if sustained further household bill rises in Autumn of hundreds of pounds, on top of record rise in next few weeks
If sustained at these levels, which seems unthinkable, avg bills would be well over £3000 - get to £3k with average price of 320p, I’m told - that would actually be a larger rise in Autumn than next month.

plausible tho now that rise in Autumn could be of same order as April
Read 16 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
Mar 1
NEW: French energy giant Total will not provide capital for new projects in Russia, which falls short of BP/Shell divestment of Russian investments totalenergies.com/media/news/pre…
Also on the boat ban - awaiting some clarification on whether it applies to LNG tankers and oil tankers… which suggests there is a debate on whether it does, - as we filmed in January - Russian LNG tankers have been delivering gas from around world including the USA
NEW Extraordinary press conference from oligarch Mikhail Friedman, who tells the BBC he wants the war to stop but that his direct comments about the Kremlin must bear in mind protecting his staff “at risk” in Russia and Ukraine… more to come
Read 10 tweets

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