Ukrainian civilian protests in Kherson against Russian occupation…
There simply aren’t enough Russian forces to occupy Ukraine… let me explain with reference to, errr, Lehman Brothers…
There simply aren’t enough Russian forces to occupy Ukraine… let me explain with reference to, errr, Lehman Brothers…
https://twitter.com/milana69018581/status/1500035567131758596
historical study (2004) done by top economists at Lehman Bros, but never published, because it correctly anticipated the difficulties for the USA in Iraq and Afghanistan…
Post WW2 ratio of occupying force to population needs to be above 20 per thousand population, probs 40…
Post WW2 ratio of occupying force to population needs to be above 20 per thousand population, probs 40…
The report looked at “force ratios” including in Malaya, N. Ireland, Bosnia, and Kosovo. Other operations, notably Algeria and South Vietnam – “failed even with a force ratio of between 20 and 40. In Iraq, the troop force ratio is around 6.5, and in Afghanistan around 0.8”…
John Llewelyn, Lehman’s then chief economist, and former HMT and OECD econ, told me about this report at Iraq War, tho not published (like his report showing US flashing red on developing country Damocles model)…
His & John Dew’s were mathematical/ historical but pretty helpful
His & John Dew’s were mathematical/ historical but pretty helpful
Eg: “The unavoidable conclusion is that nation-building in Iraq will be messier, take longer, and cost more, than many assume”… and as I recall he was mathematically adamant that it wouldn’t work… full report here: llewellyn-consulting.com/_files/ugd/264…
Now John has updated this analysis:
“to try to bring order and stability to Iraq with force ratio of just 6 that was then in place – & to Afghanistan with force ratio under 1 – was to attempt something that had never been achieved. And indeed, in the event, it was not achieved”
“to try to bring order and stability to Iraq with force ratio of just 6 that was then in place – & to Afghanistan with force ratio under 1 – was to attempt something that had never been achieved. And indeed, in the event, it was not achieved”
And on Russia/Ukraine:
“To extent that it may apply in the case of Ukraine, with population 44 million, it implies to suppress the country would require around 880,000 troops.
For Russia this is an impossibly large number, given total strength of its army is a little under 1m”
“To extent that it may apply in the case of Ukraine, with population 44 million, it implies to suppress the country would require around 880,000 troops.
For Russia this is an impossibly large number, given total strength of its army is a little under 1m”
Also… “Professional militaries, where soldiers remain in service for years at a time, try to keep the interval between deployments at 24 months or more…This means that five troops are required for every soldier deployed in the theatre of operations”…
Obviously the Russians wont do that… but even the 200,000 strong invading force is not big in context of a 44m population that mainly resists an occupation. So the conclusion…
“All that said, however, we suspect that Mr Putin may be biting off more than he can chew”.
“All that said, however, we suspect that Mr Putin may be biting off more than he can chew”.
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