Pretty shocking data from the ONS on long COVID released just now- the 4 wk long COVID estimates will include infection until end of Dec, so including the first two wks after omicron became dominant. There are clear increases in prevalence being seen already.🧵
Overall prevalence has increased to 1.5 million when considering 28 day definition - that means *2.4%* of our population. That's 1 in 42 people having persistent symptoms for 4 wks or more currently. If you consider the 12 wk definition it's still v. high- 1.7%.
685,000 people estimated to have now had persistent symptoms for *more than one year*. ~ 1 million say this affects their day to day activity to some extent. So very functionally relevant, and longstanding symptoms in a very large population.
Who is being affected? Young people, poor people, and those in high-exposure occupations- greatest prevalence (approaching 4%) in teaching and health and social care occupations.
Children also affected - 119,000 children now with long COVID based on 28 day definition of whom 21,000 now have had persistent symptoms for *more than a year*.
I cannot believe that we're essentially completely ignoring a condition that's affected 1.5 million people, of which 700,000 people affected now for more than a year. Ignoring long COVID will be our undoing- given the huge impact it's clearly having.
Even from a purely economic standpoint, if that's all policy makers care about, this is hugely significant. Even if they don't care about people's health, they should care about this because it'll have long-lasting impacts on human resource & economy.
And remember the full impact of the omicron wave hasn't been felt in these estimates yet. That'll only be known in the coming months.
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If you want to see how an 'any symptom' present or not comparisons between positive cases vs non-positive cases massively underestimates long COVID prevalence- just look at the recent ONS study that some paediatricians are astonishingly hailing as 'reassuring'. Short thread.
If you look at each symptom loss of smell/taste is *16%* in those who tested positive at 12 wks vs almost no one in the 'control' group which didn't have a positive test. So this would suggest that the prevalence of long COVID should be at least 16% of those infected, right?
After all if *one* symptom is present in 16% of those infected and almost none of those who didn't test positive, surely this is the *minimum* prevalence of the syndrome, right? When you consider more symptoms, this prevalence should increase not decrease.
We finally have HEPA air purifiers installed in each classroom in our school! Huge thanks to our local charity & school for making this happen. This will help protect our children & community. Community advocacy and effort is vital as our govt gives up on protecting children.
For those who want to know how we did this- we contacted a local charity that works closely with our school, who were willing to help fund air purifiers for all classrooms. We measured each classroom to figure out cubic volume, and CADR specs required.
We calculated that if there was no external ventilation, we'd need two of these in each classroom. As it happens, ventilation in our school is quite good. Our local authority assessed this, and we settled on one for each classroom + outside ventilation
New study out yesterday suggesting that vaccine efficacy with current dose for 5-11 yr olds likely wanes quickly. Especially against infection, but also against hospitalisation, although protection against severe disease is higher. Seems to be closely linked to vaccine dose🧵
Vaccine dose is the same as adult in 12-17 yr olds but much lower in 5-11 yr olds. There is a clear dose-response, with response greatest in 12 yr olds (greatest dose/wt) & graded lowering for other age gps. For 5-11 yr we see rapid decline in effectiveness against infection.
Effectiveness against hospitalisations also declined from 100% early on to ~48% 6 wks later, which is a significant decline. Suggests we need dose adjustments/vaccine updates against omicron/boosting to ensure a good response in this age group.
ONS data on long COVID out today very concerning
-persistent symptoms *affecting daily life* affect a significant proportion of primary & 2ndary school age children
-clear impact on children's wellbeing 🧵 ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
Let's look at the ONS results.
First, it shows that 1 in 100 primary school age children had at least one of 28 persistent symptoms post-COVID-19 *affecting every day life*. This is *not* 1 in 100 children infected. It's *1 in 100* children in the community. And pre-omicron.
Let's think about this again. 1% of all primary school age children in England estimated to have had long COVID symptoms *affecting daily life* for 12 weeks or more.
When A&Es are overwhelmed, patient safety becomes compromised. Here, a post-covid pulmonary embolism was missed initially with patient sent home without assessment. When he was finally diagnosed, he was managed at home despite low O2 levels & repeated trips to A&E. This is unsafe
Here's data on the no. of patients needing to wait >12 hrs for decision to admit in A&E- a measure of pressure in A&Es. The increases up to Jan '22 are completely off the scale. This is what we're dealing with. Services so overwhelmed simply cannot function at the same level.
We need urgent support for the NHS- the problems are complex- chronic underfunding, Brexit, the cumulative impact of the devastation of the NHS by 2 yrs of failed pandemic policy, long covid in staff, staff burnout - have all contributed.
To those who feel I shouldn't be tweeting about anything except COVID-19 - I'm a person with opinions and this is my private account, and I will use it to express my opinions on whatever I feel like. If you don't like it, feel free to unfollow. You don't get to tone police me.
Also want to point out that women experts get this a lot because people think of us as someone who's doing a job for them by putting out public information. This isn't my job- I tweet about COVID-19 because I feel like. And when I feel like, I will tweet about other things.