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Janis Kluge Profile picture
@jakluge
Mar 3, 2022 • 2 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
According to a source in Aeroflot, #Russia will not return airplanes leased from European companies (more than 500). Trust in protection of property rights will disappear. Who will ever send any machinery to Russia again? frequentflyers.ru/2022/03/03/750…
Or, more precisely: It will be difficult to find insurance for business with Russia.

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More from @jakluge

Janis Kluge Profile picture
Dec 5
Europe has to move fast now. The Witkoff/Kushner team has discovered the Russian sovereign assets as a golden opportunity for their own dealings with Moscow. Don't underestimate how attractive $200 billion are to these guys. Image
The EU has to make sure that the money is spent in Europe's and Ukraine's interest. Once we have taken control over it, US and EU interests will align again, because we will use some of it to buy US weapons. Until then, it is an opportunity for US-Russia collusion.
That's why it is crucial to put the assets out of reach of the more corrupt elements in the US administration. The "28-point plan" already contained a point that would allow the US to benefit from the reserves. This is dangerous.
Read 5 tweets
Janis Kluge Profile picture
Sep 12
Why Russia mobilizes contract soldiers with money, even if the costs for the budget are enormous. (1/3) Image
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Read 4 tweets
Janis Kluge Profile picture
Jul 4
New data on Russian recruitment: Around 200,000 men signed a contract in the first half of 2025. Dmitry Medvedev claims the number is 210,000 - my latest estimated based on regional budget data indicates 191,000. Image
By now, I'm pretty confident that my recruitment estimates based on regional budget data are useful. Over the last 1.5 years, they closely tracked the quarterly results based on federal data (which is always published with a big delay). Image
The great thing about regional budget data is that: It allows for monthly estimates, providing a more detailed and up-to-date picture of recruitment dynamics without relying on official statements. Image
Read 4 tweets
Janis Kluge Profile picture
Mar 18
The discussion about European peacekeepers is deeply dishonest. Is the idea to sneak them in while Russia is not looking? Hoping that Russia will be afraid to attack them afterwards? Should we get Putin drunk so he agrees to the deployment and when he sobers up it is too late?
If anything, these peacekeepers will be an invitation for Russia to test Europeans by attacking them in Ukraine. Are European societies ready to see thousands of their soldiers dying there? Because Putin certainly would be willing to sacrifice his people to expose Europe.
My impression is that European leaders boldly talk about peacekeepers as if they could be deployed tomorrow, knowing very well that the conditions for deploying them (especially: Russian agreement and US protection) will never come. This is a problem.
Read 4 tweets
Janis Kluge Profile picture
Mar 11
The current situation: Russia is exploring what it can get from Trump. The minimum it would want for a ceasefire is control over Ukraine, i.e. some form of surrender by Kyiv. This could take a number of forms: a new Russian-controlled president, restrictions on Ukraine's army...
Although the US position has diverged from Europe's, it is still far from Russia's. At least some in the US administration believe that Ukraine could remain independent after a deal, or that the Europeans could send in troops. Both are non-starters for Moscow.
The big question is whether Russia will manage to negotiate a deceptive deal with its inexperienced US counterparts. A deal that - to the US team - looks like Trump gets what he wants (just a ceasefire), while in fact it will lead to what Russia wants (Russian control over Kyiv).
Read 9 tweets
Janis Kluge Profile picture
Feb 20
Don't expect a ceasefire in Ukraine: Russia will not agree to it - yet. Putin knows that the war is his biggest asset. As soon as he agrees to a ceasefire, he will lose all his leverage. Trump will celebrate and then lose interest. Violating "Trump's" ceasefire later on is risky.
A ceasefire will be the last thing Putin agrees to, after he has secured (not in writing, but in reality) everything he wants: Regime change in Kyiv, recognition of new borders, crippling Ukrainian military, roll-back of NATO troops from the Eastern Flank and a few more things.
The "problem" is that Trump cannot give Putin what he wants, because he does not control it alone. He needs EU and Kyiv to play along, and they won't. Seeing this problem, Putin is already demanding that Trump has to put more pressure on Europe. But this is unlikely to work.
Read 7 tweets

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