My theory about the war is that pro-Ukraine people are over-optimistic about the short/medium term and pro-Russia people are over-optimistic about the long term.
I think Russia will eventually be able to force Ukraine to make serious concessions, and I'm skeptical of the prediction that it will face a protracted insurgency, but that some of the gains it makes will be short-lived and in the end the invasion will be a net negative.
Unfortunately, I also think it will be a net negative for the West, since a new Cold War is now inevitable, which means that we'll have to live with the fear of war for decades and spend more ressources on defense instead of stuff that actually increases people's well-being.
When I talk about a new Cold War, I don't just mean with Russia, because I think it will accelerate the formation of a new bloc with China, which is already trying to decouple from the US economically after Trump showed Beijing how vulnerable by using the FDPR to cripple Huawei.
Anyway, maybe this is totally wrong, most long-term predictions about that kind of things later prove to have been completely off, but I think Putin's decision will boost the worst elements in Western foreign policy so I'm extremely pessimistic and think we're basically fucked.
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