Russian officials are speaking in front of Putin and they're all saying that Moscow should recognize the DNR and the LNR. Interestingly, they're talking about recognizing them as independent states, not annexing them as the Duma asked Putin to do.
https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1495758629324173315
This would mean that Russia is burying the Minsk agreement, thus admitting that it couldn't get what it has sought since 2014, but I guess that, unlike annexation by Russia, it wouldn't necessarily be permanent and would leave the door open for reintegration into Ukraine later.
This is correct, I was confused because at some point during the meeting Putin corrected one of the officials who was talking about annexing them, so they're basically telling Putin to sign the Duma's resolution.
https://twitter.com/fancraft123/status/1495780624258510857
I guess it would be one of the least bad outcomes to be honest. I doubt that Ukraine would react militarily with all the Russian troops on their borders, so it would likely end with a post-2008 Georgia kind of situation.
Western countries would probably impose sanctions, but they wouldn't have to go too far. I'm just wondering if Putin can really walk back from all that with nothing more than the recognition of the DNR and the LNR though.
I have no idea whether this is the end goal, but it's certainly not a very good outcome for the Russians in my opinion, because their goal since 2014 has been to bring back the DNR and the LNR into Ukraine but with a new federalized structure.
https://twitter.com/SchonheitVe/status/1495784511665229825
This would have given the DNR and the LNR, and therefore Russia, a veto over Ukraine's foreign policy, but recognizing their independence doesn't really do much for Russia. Maybe Putin thinks it's enough to save face, but that's pretty weak sauce to be honest.
Yes, I hadn't thought of that, but that's a good point: if Russia does the latter, there would probably still be war.
https://twitter.com/olegbv/status/1495796423648022536
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