Brandon Dietz Profile picture
Mar 3 5 tweets 4 min read
1/#Roblox (#RBLX) LT Comp Thread

RBLX CEO David Baszucki has a $3.3-$4.3bln LT equity comp plan that pays out if #RBLX shares are $165-$375 by March 2028. David cut his base salary to $0 (prior $800k) at the IPO. All of his compensation out to 2028 is via equity/RSU/options. Image
2/The prize is in a "Founder and CEO Long-Term Performance Award" that will grant David 11.5mln Class A shares if #RBLX exceeds seven price hurdles between $165-$375 a share by March of 2028. The notional value in RBLX shares at the hurdle price for each tranche is $3.3bln.
3/At the top end tranche #RBLX price of $375 the award is worth $4.3bln.

S-1: "Mr. Baszucki was particularly receptive to receiving the Founder and CEO Long-Term Performance Award as he believes that he should only be rewarded if we achieve significant long-term performance".
4/I'd be highly receptive of that arrangement too! Sign me up.

The LT award is in addition to some other outstanding options/RSU's as well as Baszucki's current ~64mln shares. Adding all together #RBLX's CEO has a large incentive to create long term value for #RBLX shareholders
5/With #RBLX at ~$46/share, upside to get to the $165-$375 tranches is +260%-720% by March of 2028 (24%-42% annualized). It would also put RBLX well over $100bln-$250bln in market cap in just ~6yrs.

This would be quite the accomplishment.
#Roblox #RBLX Image

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More from @EquiCompound

Apr 23
1/#Maytronics MTRN.IT
During my $POOL Q1 review I came across a terrific company, #Maytronics, the leading manufacturer of pool cleaning robots. https://t.co/XHiinEMbVR has 50% market share, 25% ROIC, 20% margins, and grew sales 10x over ‘04-‘21. Some key notes... Image
2/Intro
Headquartered in Israel, #Maytronics manufacturers a lineup of pool cleaning robots under the Dolphin brand name. In '21, generated USD $437mln in revenue (1.4bln ILS) and $110mln in EBITDA (334mln ILS) (24% margin). Has a USD $2bln mkt cap with $62mln in net debt (0.6x) Image
3/Products
MTRN.IT makes an array of pool cleaning robots for private/public pools. Private pool robot ASP’s range $600-$1700. Price leader, generally gets premium pricing due to strong brand reputation, superior product and a superior distribution/service network Image
Read 24 tweets
Apr 22
1/Pool Corp $POOL Earnings
$POOL had another impressive, blow out qtr. While shares were up as much as 9% on 4/21 they closed down -1% and were down again today despite solid results and a continued strong outlook. Key issue is '23. This thread reviews $POOL results and key notes
2/Results
Revenue was up +33% (street +20%) on a tough comp (Q1’21 +57%) with $POOL gross profit up +49% (street +25%) and op income up +83% (+32%). Big margin expansion – gross margin +327bps to 31.7% (street 29.7%, +135bps), op income +452bps to 16.7% (street 13.4%, +128bps)
3/Guidance
$POOL 2022 sales growth now seen at the high end of prior 17-19% range (street +18%) Expects at least 10% from pricing (prior 9-10%, YTD 10-12%) 5% via M&A (prior 5%) Gross margin still to be flat to 2022 – 30.5% (street 30.5%) EPS growth seen at 20-25% (prior 15-17%)
Read 16 tweets
Mar 17
1/Floor & Décor Investor Day
$FND's investor day was yesterday. Continue to be impressed by this early-stage category killer. Strong execution and one of the better names in my portfolio.

For a quick walk through see this thread


Below are some notes
2/Retail Conversion Rate
Homeowner customers that shop at $FND ultimately purchase over >80% of the time. Professional customers that shop at $FND purchase over >90% of the time. Pretty impressive. Average brick and mortar retail conversion rates are 20%-40% for most retailers
3/Sq/Ft
$FND has more flooring dedicated sq/ft coverage than any other operator. Has 12.6mln sq/ft vs. $HD's ~8.0mln and $LOW's ~6.9mln flooring dept sq/ft (est @ 4k sq/ft store). Almost exceeds both combined and dwarfs all others on a total sq/ft basis and on a box vs. box basis
Read 12 tweets
Mar 16
1/ SiteOne Landscape Supply $SITE Thread
$SITE is a high-quality boring business, very similar to $POOL and other distributors. With shares off -31% from recent highs I wanted to provide a quick walk through of the business. If you like $POOL $WSO $FND etc. you will like $SITE
2/Intro
$SITE is the largest and only national scale distributor of landscaping supplies in the US. Sells irrigation, hardscape, nursery, and other items via a 590-branch network in 45 states and 6 CA provinces. Had ’21 revenue of $3.5bln with $415mln in EBITDA (11.9%/sales).
3/Market Share [1]
$SITE operates in the highly fragmented $23bln wholesale landscape supply market. Has ~15% market share with the balance (~85%) primarily held by small/local players. $SITE is 5x larger than its nearest competitor (Ewing) and multiples of the remaining top 8
Read 18 tweets
Mar 12
1/ Floor & Décor (FND)
Looking forward to the $FND analyst day on Wed 3/16. $FND, is a high-quality business compounding LT over 20%/yr. Shares are off -36% from 11/21 and I’m currently re-underwriting $FND for my portfolio. This thread discusses key items around the $FND model. Image
2/Overview
$FND is a specialty retailer that operates 160 large (~75k sq/ft) warehouse stores across 33 states selling tile, stone, wood, laminate, vinyl and other flooring products. Generated $3.4bln in ’21 revenue, $485mln in EBITDA (14.1% margin) and has a ~$10bln mkt cap
3/Comp Advantage [1]
$FND primarily competes vs. home improvement centers ( $HD, $LOW, #Menards), specialty flooring ( $TTS), and local independents/mom & pops.

$FND has:
(1) larger box at ~75k sq/ft vs. $HD/ $LOW 3k-5k sq/ft flooring dept. and specialty/indep <20k avg. box
Read 18 tweets
Mar 9
1/#Skechers $SKX UBS Conference Notes

$SKX shares have been torpedoed (-22% since mid Feb) along with other international/retail names on the Russia/Ukraine conflict and consumer spending concerns. $SKX just presented at a UBS conference. Below are some quick notes: Image
2/Exposure

Announced today a suspension of all shipments to Russia, less than 1% of sales are derived from Russia and Ukraine each. Operations in both are distributor businesses with no co. owned stores. $SKX has just 50 distributor stores in each vs. a co. total of 4,306.
3/Consumer Impact

So far, $SKX has seen "no evidence of issues or an impact" on total consumer demand. Noted consumers remain "very healthy", spending remains "incredibly robust", and demand characteristics continue to be "consistent" across markets.
Read 11 tweets

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