Hans Kristensen Profile picture
Mar 4 6 tweets 3 min read
Man, when Putin issued those nuclear threats, I thought he meant nuclear weapons. Now he’s bombing the largest nuclear power plant in Europe! It has 6 reactors, all of which need power to cool the fuel cores. Wasn’t Chernobyl enough for him?
#RussianUkrainianCrisis #Zaporizhzhia
But it’s important not to jump to conclusions. We need more information about what’s happening on the ground. In the meantime, for good analysis, see @james_acton32 thread: 👇👇👇
Also good response from @JBWolfsthal in this thread: 👇👇👇
Here is what @iaeaorg is reporting (h/t @PaperMissiles): we know of reports of shelling, we’re talking to Ukraine officials, no elevated radiation detected.
But even if the nuclear power plant is not seriously damaged, it is a warning about what could potentially happen. Russian forces should not do combat operations near any of Ukraines nuclear power plants.
#RussianUkrainianWar

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More from @nukestrat

Mar 4
Two B-52s (60-0044 and 61-0018) heading east/northeast over North Sea this morning. ImageImage
Call signs NOBLE41 and possibly NOBLE42.
Making sharp turn south over Denmark.

Of these two B-52s, one (60-0044) is nuclear-capable (but not carrying nukes), while the other (61-0018) is conventional-only. Image
Read 6 tweets
Feb 14
Interesting B-52 flights over Europe and Mediterranean this morning. Both south from UK around Spain into Med. One (CHIEF12, 61-0018) heads back across Spain toward UK. Other (CHIEF11, 61-0039) continues off Israel, across Sinai south over Red Sea.
B-52 (CHIEF12, 61-0018) returns to RAF Fairford after refuel point over Mediterranean. Wonder if it suffered refuel defect.
Meanwhile, the other B-52 (#CHIEF11, 61-0039) continued down over Red Sea and has just turned east over Saudi Arabia.
Read 7 tweets
Feb 14
Two days after arriving in UK, USAF B-52s head south, possibly to turn east across Mediterranean Sea.

The 61-0039 shown here is capable of launching nuclear and conventional cruise missiles.

At least they got rid of the “HATE” call sign. Now it’s CHIEF.
The other one in this groups is 61-0018, which is conventional-only. So a real strategic integration group.
And there they are, heading east across Gibraltar into the Mediterranean. It’ll be interesting to see if they’re going all the way into the Black Sea and across Ukraine.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 10
B-52 bombers are on their way to Europe (RAF Fairford) and Guam in the first Bomber Task Force mission of the year. US bombers deploy to Europe several times a year but this deployment coincides with the escalating Russia-NATO crisis over Ukraine and naturally be seen as signal.
Here is one of them (61-0006), passing south of Iceland enroute UK.

Sure hope callsign HATE11 is a mistake.
The B-52 deployment comes only days after US proposal to Russia to discuss “nuclear risk reduction measures, including strategic nuclear bomber platforms.” elpais.com/infografias/20…

Russia also recently conducted forward strategic nuclear bomber operations thebarentsobserver.com/en/2022/02/nor…
Read 7 tweets
Sep 14, 2021
Woodward/Costa book is as dramatic as it’s disconcerting. Trump was crazy, top official knew it & feared it, CIA head said US was on its way to a right-wing coup, CJCS Milley called China, and told US brass Trump couldn’t launch nukes without him. washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/… 👀 ImageImageImageImage
On nuclear launch authority episode, the book will likely reaffirm belief of some that presidential sole launch authority has adequate safety checks. But then why would Milley have to ask the launch officers to acknowledge he would have to be involved?
We shouldn’t have to be in this situation - ever! Current arrangement creates contradiction between civilian authority and military revolt needed to stop crazy President from launching nukes. Dissent should be civilian - 1-2 more votes - not military.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 27, 2021
China appears to be building a second missile silo field, eventually possibly with 110 silos. New York Times has the story nytimes.com/2021/07/26/us/… based on our analysis fas.org/blogs/security…

My assistant @mattkorda found it first. Thanks to @planet for satellite images.
@mattkorda @planet An 800 square kilometer grid of roads being filled in with silos and support facilities. Construction started early this year. fas.org/blogs/security…
@mattkorda @planet China has for decades maintained a policy of a “minimum deterrent” and not being part of an arms race. The scale of the current nuclear build-up appears to contradict both of these policies. fas.org/blogs/security…
Read 6 tweets

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