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Hans Kristensen Profile picture
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Sep 14, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Woodward/Costa book is as dramatic as it’s disconcerting. Trump was crazy, top official knew it & feared it, CIA head said US was on its way to a right-wing coup, CJCS Milley called China, and told US brass Trump couldn’t launch nukes without him. washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/… 👀 ImageImageImageImage
On nuclear launch authority episode, the book will likely reaffirm belief of some that presidential sole launch authority has adequate safety checks. But then why would Milley have to ask the launch officers to acknowledge he would have to be involved?
We shouldn’t have to be in this situation - ever! Current arrangement creates contradiction between civilian authority and military revolt needed to stop crazy President from launching nukes. Dissent should be civilian - 1-2 more votes - not military.
This appears to be the point in STRATCOM’s perfect-world NC3 infographic where Gen Milley feared things could go wrong with a crazy President like Trump: the discussion between the President and the military. In Milley’s mind, he and his officers would block the launch order. Image
Here’s the statement from Gen Milley’s office defending his call with Chinese and Russian officials during the tumultuous election as normal. The statement also confirms the meeting about nuke launch procedures. jcs.mil/Media/News/New… Image

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More from @nukestrat

Hans Kristensen Profile picture
Feb 10
B-52 bombers are on their way to Europe (RAF Fairford) and Guam in the first Bomber Task Force mission of the year. US bombers deploy to Europe several times a year but this deployment coincides with the escalating Russia-NATO crisis over Ukraine and naturally be seen as signal. Image
Here is one of them (61-0006), passing south of Iceland enroute UK.

Sure hope callsign HATE11 is a mistake. Image
The B-52 deployment comes only days after US proposal to Russia to discuss “nuclear risk reduction measures, including strategic nuclear bomber platforms.” elpais.com/infografias/20…

Russia also recently conducted forward strategic nuclear bomber operations thebarentsobserver.com/en/2022/02/nor… Image
Read 7 tweets
Hans Kristensen Profile picture
Jul 27, 2021
China appears to be building a second missile silo field, eventually possibly with 110 silos. New York Times has the story nytimes.com/2021/07/26/us/… based on our analysis fas.org/blogs/security…

My assistant @mattkorda found it first. Thanks to @planet for satellite images.
@mattkorda @planet An 800 square kilometer grid of roads being filled in with silos and support facilities. Construction started early this year. fas.org/blogs/security…
@mattkorda @planet China has for decades maintained a policy of a “minimum deterrent” and not being part of an arms race. The scale of the current nuclear build-up appears to contradict both of these policies. fas.org/blogs/security…
Read 6 tweets
Hans Kristensen Profile picture
May 6, 2021
1/n Wow: New report from @USGAO concludes: "every nuclear triad replacement program - including the B-21, LRSO, GBSD, and Columbia class submarine, and every ongoing bomb and warhead modernization program- faces the prospect of delays…” gao.gov/assets/gao-21-…
@USGAO 2/n These risks are not just about existing systems getting old but also about DOD/DOE planning overly aggressive timelines, workload from several concurring systems, and immature technologies.
3/n Check this out: Because of a requirement to have 400 ICBMs on alert, the Air Force "will be largely constrained to fielding GBSD into the 50 launch facilities with silos that are maintained empty” under New START!
Read 16 tweets
Hans Kristensen Profile picture
May 4, 2021
Two B-52Hs from Minot AFB heading East disappeared from tracking radars as they crossed into Canadian airspace over Lake Superior. Another Middle East mission? Both aircraft (60-0026 and 61-0006) are among the 46 B-52Hs that are nuclear-capable. ImageImage
One of them briefly reappeared on the radar north of Ottawa heading south toward US border. So this appears to be part of an exercise over North America. There has been some amazing tanker operations tonight. Image
And there they are, heading out over the water north of Boston. Image
Read 8 tweets
Hans Kristensen Profile picture
Sep 1, 2020
The Pentagon’s 2020 report on Chinese military affairs is out. Here is the analysis by @mattkorda and yours truly:

The Pentagon’s 2020 China Report
fas.org/blogs/security…
@mattkorda One of the most surprising bits is the statement that "China probably maintains an operational nuclear warhead stockpile in the low-200s.” That’s less than the 290 we had at the end of 2019 (the data point for the DOD report). Possible reason: the term “operational."
Another surprise is 200 DF-26 IRBMs. Thast’s up from 80 last year! How is that even possible? Doesn’t fit the visible force structure. @dex_eve will have more to say about that.
Read 6 tweets
Hans Kristensen Profile picture
Jul 18, 2020
Why are people who have been fighting arms control for decades suddenly so eager to advocate it?

This “thoughtful article” praised by Billingslea proposes to ban mobile ICBMs. That would eliminate 80% of Chinese and 60% of Russian ICBMs. US doesn’t have mobile ICBMs.

Oh, I see!
Don’t get me wrong, the article raises many important issues that a future treaty would have to consider. But in comparing START and New START verfication, the article skips over the W Bush administration’s 2002 Moscow Treaty, which did not have a verification regime.
The point that New START does not cover non-deployed warheads is of course relevant, but neither did START. In fact, it was under START that the US developed its “hedge” of what was later called the “responsive stockpile” of non-deployed warheads that could be uploaded.
Read 4 tweets

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