Thread by @DavidHerdson

A few thoughts on the #BirminghamErdington by-election. [Thread]

1/n Top-line is that the main thing that matters is the result - and the result was that Labour held the seat with a 4.5% swing from the Tories. No embarrassment; job done; move on.

2/n However, that's a distinctly underwhelming result for Labour.

My rule-of-thumb is that by-elections where there are no special circumstances produce a swing about 50% bigger that current polling.

On that basis, Labour should have have had about a 15% swing (ie a 40% lead).

3/n The controversy around the Labour candidate's comments might well have had some effect on that but the low turnout just suggests that while there may be little enthusiasm for the govt, there's no great anger to protest against it right now either.

4/n There were also some anecdotal reports that the Starmer-Savile allegations had some cut-through with voters - which if so, almost certainly means that they'll be repeated by Johnson and the Tories in general. This is not a good thing.

5/n To put that turnout in #BirminghamErdington in context, it was the 12th-lowest in any by-election since 1945 - and most of those higher in the list were in rock-solid safe seats, or had special circumstances about them (as with Southend West earlier this year).

6/n The Tories can be reasonably satisfied with the outcome. Starting 10% behind in a Leave seat (with a 4% Brexit Party vote from 2019), they might have been hoping for a gain had the election been in 2020/21. Even so, to keep the swing down as they did will encourage them.

7/n The better-than-might-have-been-expected Tory result in Birmingham will also stay the hands of Johnson-sceptic Tory MPs for now (on top of the Ukraine crisis).

To that end, Johnson is almost certainly safe now until the May elections.

8/n Indeed, looking forward to May, unless Labour can start enthusing people in their own message and vision (if indeed they can find one), or unless they can generate real anger against the Tories, those polls will also prove to be a damp squib for Starmer.

9/n Beyond the Big Two: nothing.

That the TUSC finished third with 360 votes says everything. No cut-through - and presumably no meaningful campaigning - from any of the other second-tier parties: Green, Lib Dem or Reform.

10/n For the Greens and Reform, Birmingham represents a missed opportunity.

No-one takes the TUSC finishing third seriously but had the Greens or Reform done so - particularly with a saved deposit (only 850 votes) - that could have been a talking point going forward.

11/n Meanwhile, the Lib Dems, who clearly now operate an all-or-nothing approach. That's fine for the short-term hit when they have the opportunity to go 'all', but 'nothing' - as here - just emphasises the extent to which they're no longer anything like a national party.

12/n Indeed, while the Lib Dems' 1.0% share of the vote in Birmingham Erdington wasn't their lowest-ever (they took 0.9% in Rochester, 2014), their 173 votes probably *is* their lowest total since way back into the 19th century, when electorates were far smaller.

13/13 Overall then, nothing for any party to get too excited about. Short-term, Labour have most to celebrate from it; medium-term, the Tories do. But both results were a six-out-of-ten, at best.

Ends.