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David Herdson Profile picture
David Herdson
@DavidHerdson
Yorkshire Party Deputy Chair. Part-time writer. Fan of Bradford City and rail travel. Bibliophile. Dad. List not necessarily in order of importance.
Dec 11, 2023 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Quick thread on Sunak survival.

1/n Career obliterating for Sunak? Until this last week, I didn't think so. Changing leader again would be disruptive, divisive and could quite possibly lead to things getting worse for the Tories (and country), as per Liz Truss.

But ... 2/n Sunak seems to have entered a political death-spiral remarkably quickly, where his authority drains away amid lack of delivery either on public services or political policy. Half-baked initiatives are launched, and fail on both scores. Rwanda epitomises.
Aug 1, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Worth noting for a moment just how little the front lines in Ukraine have moved in 5 months. Russia has gained some ground in the SE and East but withdrawn wholly from the North.

But that's painfully slow and has been very costly. Putin is going to have to make a big call soon. 2/n Russia cannot win in Ukraine any time soon and cannot continue to fight its current 'Special Operation' war for all that long because it can't keep such a large proportion of its available troops indefinitely deployed there.

Which gives Putin three options.
Mar 4, 2022 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
A few thoughts on the #BirminghamErdington by-election. [Thread]

1/n Top-line is that the main thing that matters is the result - and the result was that Labour held the seat with a 4.5% swing from the Tories. No embarrassment; job done; move on. 2/n However, that's a distinctly underwhelming result for Labour.

My rule-of-thumb is that by-elections where there are no special circumstances produce a swing about 50% bigger that current polling.

On that basis, Labour should have have had about a 15% swing (ie a 40% lead).
Jul 30, 2020 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
With 3 months* to go to the US elections, here's why I reckon that Biden should be a much stronger favourite than the betting markets make him [Thread]

* Although polling starts much earlier than Nov 3. Early ballots can be cast in September in some states. This itself matters. 1. The place to start is with the national picture, which is that Biden leads by a lot. The RCP average has him 8.4% ahead. If the election was today (and the polls are right), then Biden could be looking at a landslide win with 400+ ECVs.
Sep 25, 2018 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
1/n Interesting results to questions in yesterday's YouGov down the poll, below the voting intention. These secondaries can often give a better idea of the underlying position than the headline VI.

Best PM

May 36 (n/c)
Corbyn 23 (n/c)
DK/Ref 41 (n/c)

May lead +13 (n/c) 2/n Public opinion not happy with Brexit decision or outcome

Is Govt doing well negotiating Brexit?

Well 17 (n/c)
Badly 71 (n/c)

Net -54 (n/c)

In hindsight was Britain right to vote to leave EU?

Right 40 (-2)
Wrong 47 (+1)

Net wrong +7 (+3) - jt-highest ever 'Wrong' lead.