TLDR: cases, hospitalisations and deaths going down everywhere except Scotland where all are going up. BUT admissions going up last few days in England too.
1/8
Prevalence from ONS infection survey shows that it's falling everywhere *except* Scotland where it's going up quickly.
ALL nations are still much higher than at any point pre Omicron. 2/8
Hospitalisations show exactly the same pattern with Scotland going up sharply.
While overall deaths within 28 days in UK are still falling, in Scotland they have started rising again.
Scottish cases increases have been in older adults H/T @PaulMainwood 3/8
In England, prevalence is still going down in all regions apart from the SW. Recent drops driven by kids - prevalence in older adults has barely changed & boosters are waning.
Hospital admissions are going up last few days - driven by older adults, mainly in SW & London. 4/8
The Omicron subvariant BA.2 is definitely dominant in England and NI and most likely in Scotland and v soon in Wales. In England, it's highest in London and SW.
No vax difference for BA.1 or BA.2 but even boosters wane quite fast against Omicron (mostly infection but hosp) 5/8
Latest ONS Long Covid data is in too with infections in December now added. We see overall increase, especially high in adults 20-50 yrs reflecting Dec Omicron surge.
2/3 report some impact on daily life, 685K have had it > 1 year.
Some professions at high risk of exposure 6/8
Recently, ONS also published long covid report on school children. 1% & 2.7% of *all* primary & secondary school kids fulfilled all criteria for long covid. *before* the massive surges since Dec.
That is a lot of children. See also this thread: 7/8
Quick thread on current Covid situation in England and Long Covid.
I have Thoughts about the Inquiry Report published yesterday but am still trying to organise them.
TLDR: high Covid levels remain, Long Covid remains 1/11
This wave is not over. While the number of admissions with Covid remains lower than the autumn/winter waves, it has now remained highsh for several weeks.
This means there are a lot of people out there getting sick - and having their work, plans and holidays disrupted. 2/11
Scottish wastewater data to 9 July shows a sharp decrease, suggesting that prevalence might be on its way down.
Obviously Scotland and England can have different dynamics, but it’s the best we’ve got as long as England refuses to analyse its own wastwater. 3/11
THREAD: Given tomorrow's election, I've been thinking about our nation's (poor) health, the wider determinants of health and how these have worsened and what it means for policy....
TLDR: worrying only about NHS & social care is missing the point
let's dive in... 1/25
The UK has a health problem. After steady gains in life expectancy for decades, it flatlined during the austerity years and fell for the first time this century with the Covid pandemic.
The number of people out of work for long term sickness is near record levels. 2/25
There are huge inequalities between rich & poor. Boys born in the most deprived areas can expect to die almost 10 years earlier than their peers in the least deprived areas.
Even worse, they can expect to spend 18 fewer years of their life in good health (52 vs 70 years) 3/25
As ever, I am getting lots of pushback.
Here is a compilation of the European countries I've found with recent wastewater data. Some are going up a bit, some down a bit, some are flat, none are anywhere near previous peaks.
I can't see anything here to be panic anyone. 1/3
I can't find the dashboard for Spain, but others saying it is in a wave. Perhaps it is. England has just had one - the last data we had (a couple of weeks ago from Bob Hawkins) looked as if our wave had peaked.
So, I'm not seeing reason to think things are terrible here! 2/3
Yes there are new variants growing right now. They are not growing faster than JN.1 grew in December and that wave did not end up as bad as feared.
Clearly it remains true that Covid is NOT a seasonal disease (unlike Flu and RSV)
3/3
Quick thread on the Astra Zeneca (AZ) covid vaccine since it's been in the news today.
TLDR there isn't a new "smoking gun", the AZ vax was one of first and cheapest, it saved millions of lives globally, there are better vax out there now, adapted to new variants 1/9
the AZ vaccine was one of the first approved at the end of 2020, cheaper than Pfizer, and - importantly - easier to administer in lower resource settings as it didn't require super low temperatures for storage 2/9
In most countries it was first rolled out in older adults. As it was rolled out in younger adults, a *very rare*, serious, side effect was noticed - it could cause deadly blood clots
This was spotted quickly and studied. Vax monitoring did its job. 3/9
A short thread on why this is not a scary chart and why all the evidence suggests that there is not much Covid around right now. 1/6
the above chart is recorded covid hospital admissions / reported covid cases. It is close to 100% now *because basically only hospitals can report cases since Feb 2024*
It is to do with changes in case reporting and NOT hospital testing
2/6