Thread by @voxdotcom

Russia's invasion of Ukraine could raise food prices and increase world hunger.

That's because Russia and Ukraine are top global suppliers of agricultural products, especially wheat.

Conflict has historically been a driver of food price hikes.

Studies have found a feedback loop: Conflict causes higher food prices, and higher food prices can cause conflict, even in places that aren't directly affected by the original event. trib.al/yKnOmuf

Disruptions to Russian/Ukrainian exports will likely have damaging affects, especially in the Middle East, South Asia, and North Africa.

Countries in those regions rely on Russian/Ukrainian imports for their wheat supply. Many of them already experience widespread hunger.

The total number of people with insufficient food in some top importing countries, per @WFP:

🇪🇬 12 million in Egypt
🇾🇪14 million in Yemen
🇮🇩26 million in Indonesia
🇧🇩29 million in Bangladesh
🇳🇬 55 milllion in Nigeria
trib.al/yKnOmuf

An @fao economist says the impact of disruption depend on where supply is concentrated.

For ex., if there's a high rate of export concentration, other countries can't offset disruptions. If there are many exporters, they could make up the difference. trib.al/yKnOmuf

The war in Ukraine comes as 857 million people suffer from food insecurity and as global food prices have risen to their highest levels since 2011. The latter is largely due to volatile climate conditions and supply chain disruptions created by Covid-19.
trib.al/yKnOmuf