Thread by @motytchak

simply #mustread on the #RussianWarOnUkraine:
chicagoboyz.net/archives/67331…

Russian Army columns North of Kyiv decaying into immobile blobs due to the mud season, poorly maintained Chinese truck tires and shear “follow the plan” Russian incompetence.

2/ all the columns’ heads are now out of fuel and battery power and they can’t move north, south or sideways... everything behind them is stuck because of the mud, and rapidly running out of fuel and vehicle battery charge too (assuming they haven’t already).

3/ Nor can any of those columns defend themselves, because they’re too densely packed. They’re just targets waiting for the Ukrainians to destroy them.

Only the Ukrainians had something better to do.

4/ Ukrainians opened the floodgates of reservoirs around those columns to flood them and turn the surrounding areas into impassable quagmires ~until July or August.
Several 1000s Russian vehicles will be irrecoverable losses. 100s of Russian soldiers might have drowned.

5/ This was not just a debacle, but an EPIC one.
About 1/5th (!!!!!!!!!!) of the Russian force in Ukraine is now flooded or trapped, and are definitely out of the war for good.

6/ To start with, the russians' logistics are just hosed. The Ukrainians destroyed or still have possession of (in their cities) all the railheads, save for Kherson and Berdyansk, since the first day of the war.
So Russian rail logistics are not possible into Ukraine.

7/ The Ukrainians have been slamming every fuel truck they can find with every method available to them, which is big trouble for the Russians as they:
- didn’t have many of those to begin with,
and 
- brought only the ammunition & food for a three-day (!!!) operation.

8/ Russians ditched their original 3-day “special operation” plan and shifted to “set-piece” battles requiring significant preparation, bcs of poorly trained troops.

But they lack the force density to defend their rears, esp. the bridges over Ukraine’s many rivers & streams.

9/ Russian inability to suppress Ukrainian’s integrated Air Defense stems from pathetically poor planning of missile launches,
which MOSTLY EXPENDED pre-war inventory of
- Iskander & Kaliber launched cruise missiles
- 500km ranged Iskander ballistic missiles

for limited results

10/ It is also due to the (unknowable before combat) collapse of Russian emitter locating systems for hunting SAMs (surface-to-air missiles), intensely used by Soviets, and Support Jamming capability, also heavily used by Soviets.

11/ The 10th day of combat showed vast under-performance of radar threat warning receivers, defensive jammers & infrared missile warning systems on latest russian jets.

These deficiencies were visible before (since 2015) but their severity was difficult to assess before combat.

12/ This doesn’t stop Russian set-piece attacks, but it increases preparation time and upsets their timing so the set-piece attacks cannot be coordinated for mutual support. Each will be a one-off.

I.e., the Russian advance has been slowed down in a major way.

13/ This buys the Ukrainians time to do other things to defeat the Russians.
The most important thing the Ukrainians need is time.
They have to take it from the Russians with ground operations & airstrikes.

14/ For various reasons, I have the impression that Russians are now operating on a 3-day decision-reaction cycle.
If a major attack being planned is suddenly down to ONE KEY BRIDGE connecting its assembly area to supply bases in Russia.

15/ It takes 3 (!!!) days for Russians to send a ground combat battalion to defend that bridge.
That is more than enough time for Ukrainians to destroy the bridge.

Ukrainians are clearly operating inside the Russians’ Observe, Orient, Decide, Act [aka OODA loop].

16/ The Russians simply NO LONGER HAVE AIR SUPERIORITY they needed to stop Ukrainians mobile forces from counter attacking in the 1st three days of war.

There seem to be no rear area security forces behind lead Russian columns anywhere save close to Crimea in the south.

17/ But even there the lead Russian columns heading for Odessa just got annihilated in a kettle battle.
Mykolayiv was reported cleared of remaining Russian troops, with a large haul of captured Russian equipment trophied at Kubalkino AB near the city.

18/ Elsewhere in the Ru occupied Kherson & Berdyansk, we saw major public protests w/ flags & Ukrainian anthem being sung, ruining Ru planned propaganda spectacles.
The sieges of Mariupol & Volnovakha continue & Russians violating agreed ceasefires by moving ammo in ambulances.

19/ The 2nd Ru strategic echelon & Belarusians cannot come from the N & Russia doesn’t have either rails or truck park in the W or S to sustain anything trying to reach the out-of-supply forward columns bcd Ukraine owns the skies W of Dnipro.

20/ Ukrainian logistics have superior mobility during the Mud Season bcs their tires will not disintegrate in mud.

Vehicles are combat power in mechanized war.

There are safe rear areas for the Ukrainians in Ukraine while there none for Russians.

21/ Ukrainians t only losing vehicles to combat/capture, operational losses r repaired & returned.

All Russian operational losses wind up either permanent OR CAPTURED UKRAINIAN MECHANIZED POWER.

UA is winning war of mechanized ground vehicle attrition w/ Ru inside Ukraine.

\22/
Still, we are in an attrition phase, the outcome is still in doubt, and Ru still has an much bigger army.

#RussianWarOnUkraine
#CloseTheSkyOverUkraineNOW