Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 11: It is likely Russian forces will renew offensive operations in the next 24-48 hours with an emphasis on continuing to encircle Kyiv, attacking west of Kharkiv, and capturing Mariupol. #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineUnderAttaсk #Ukrainian

2/ I have removed the casualty table from the overall theater chart. This is to avoid reflecting data that remains contested and unclear. In its place I have put the 10-Day weather forecast, though the information is derived from the Kyiv weather station.

3/ Weather assessment. Generally cloudy skies and some snow showers in the Kyiv area and eastern Ukraine will degrade aerospace operations throughout the theater and impede accurate OSINT imagery collection. Conditions for sorties will not improve until 10 March.

4/ Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, both Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted limited probes throughout northwest Kyiv. Russian forces seem to be increasing targeting of known civilian exit routes, most likely to degrade morale. #KyivNow

5/ Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, Russian forces are reportedly brining in thermobaric MLRSs to the Chernihiv area. The Russian are also concentrating forces to the east of Kyiv. It is possible the Ukrainians may counterattack east of Kyiv.

6/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments are detailed in this chart. Key take away, the situation in east continues to deteriorate for the Ukrainian military. The Russians appear to be preparing an offensive west of Kharkiv, whether this will be directed to the city is unclear.

7/ Russian forces have encircled Okhtyrka, the Ukrainian General Staff is reporting that they belief Russian forces will begin an advance against Lubny and / or Poltava in the coming days. If this is true, the Ukrainians will be forced to commit forces to this area.

8/ As stated in a previous thread controlling Kharkiv opens multiple avenues to the geostrategic point of Dnipro and Kyiv. An advance, and eventual capture of Lubny or Poltava, will achieve one of Putin’s principal political objectives.

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1497670934244872199?s=20&t=9YHf6RsC9MUDd6eUBCa0OA

9/ The Southern Theater assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, Mariupol will not be able to resist for another week. It is likely that Ukrainian forces will attempt another counterattack to relieve the city, though it may not have enough strength to do so. #Mariupol

10/ Aerospace Assessment. U.S. Defense officials state the VKS (Russian Aerospace Forces) have launched to date 600 missile strikes against targets in Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff expects these attacks to increase against Odesa in the coming week.

https://twitter.com/uafreesky/status/1500437112377782273?s=20&t=9YHf6RsC9MUDd6eUBCa0OA

11/ Russian sorties continue to be conducted primarily at night to avoid high-effective employment of MANPADS (i.e., man-portable air-defense system) by Ukrainian ground forces. Russian ground units are starting to better employ their ADA radar systems to some degree.

12/ Russian Overall Assessment. The Russians will more than likely continue to make limited advances and attacks to set conditions for a significant exploitation at weakened points of the forward line. Kyiv remains the main effort, but the Donbas may yield the biggest gains.

13/ Ukrainian Overall Assessment. The Ukrainian military still controls key points of communication and continues to be able to contest control of its airspace with the VKS. It is unclear how much of an operational reserve remains uncommitted, more of it will be pressed east.

14/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis forthcoming.

15/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.