Thread by @NKrasnogor

Why I think now is the time for full-scale military support to #Ukranie (or at least an enforced #NoFlyZone ):

At this point in time is when Russia is at its weakest: (1) with troops and military material spread up and tied up elsewhere, e.g., Siria, (2) a demoralised invasion force, (3) a shock to the system due to the rapid economic/financial/business sanctions

(4) incompetence in the field of battle, (5) a growing Russian domestic discontent,

(6) incredible heroism and effectiveness of Ukrainian military resistance, (7) effective social media, information campaign by Ukraine and its supporters and (8) superb performance by Ukraine leadership.

Plus, at this point in time is when the pro-Ukrainian forces (The "Allies" for short) are at their strongest: (1) unequivocal condemnation of Russian murderous adventurism, (2) rapid and agile diplomacy,

(3) strong support and empathy amongst Allies' peoples for Ukrainian refugees and plight, (4) a strong Ukrainian will and means to resist.

However, time (and here is where I disagree with all self-congratulatory European, USA and UK leaders) is on Putin's side. (1) Putin is also using economic sanctions (indeed he has been doing so in preparation for this) in the form of manipulating oil and gas prices.

And in this, he has a gun to the heads of major EU nations. (2) Putin uses chaos and massive population displacement as a weapon, i.e., he has weaponised industrial-scale people's suffering by sending wave after wave of hard-hit refugees into western Europe.

(3) he knows that the hosts' goodwill will evaporate very rapidly and very soon, especially as his brutality increases and the refugees' tides grow bigger. (4) he knows the Allies' political system is more sensitive to inflation pressures than an authoritarian one like in Russia

and hence, the more the Allies do nothing to win the war the less likely they will have the stomach to do anything later when their governments will be fighting against rising inflation and anti-refugee sentiments.

(5) as his destruction of Ukraine goes on it is inevitable that the Ukrainian mass resistance will weaken and be reduced to a much smaller hard-core of trained military and militias.

Thus, if he waits, perhaps 2 more weeks, maybe 2 months (but I do not put it past 2 months) he would have won because the Allies' unity would have been shattered.

At that point, China would have learnt the lessons from this war too and, not only Ukraine would have been lost, but, I postulate that once Ukraine is lost and Allie's unity is shattered, it will herald the final nail in the coffin for liberal capitalist-democracies.

From then onwards, we in the Allied territories will slowly start perceiving a shift towards more fascistic and totalitarian regimes. What was won in WW2, would have been lost in this war.

And this is why I think the Allies MUST act forcefully, full-throttle, draw a line on the sand and push all (including Crimea, Donbas, etc) Russian troops back.

Or, at least, an enforced no-fly zone over Ukraine should be enacted immediately. Right now, it is militarily possible and I do not believe it will lead to WW3. It will certainly lead to a regional war on the easter frontiers of Europe but it can be confined there and won there.

If we don't do this now, there won't be another chance, because the Allies will be weaker and Rusian stronger. Now, the balance is on the Allies' side.

Putin must fail and he needs to be shown to have failed massively and publicly so he is removed by his own people.

The moment he is removed from the Kremlin, sanctions should be starting to be swiftly backrolled and support for Russian democratic forces enhanced. The goal SHOULD be regime change and the democratic forces there given all the support they need.

There is no point pretending otherwise: fascism needs to be fought again and defeated again.