"The current global growth Economy will definitely take us to unthinkable suffering, death and extinctions at 1.8°C or more of global warming by between 2030 and 2090 unless we achieve profound political and economic system change."🧵
1. 'If temperatures rise to between 1.7 and 1.8C above the 1850s level, then the report states that half the human population could be exposed to periods of life-threatening climatic conditions arising from heat and humidity.'
2. If we get on to a lower emissions pathway in the coming years (emissions are rising towards record levels by 2025) we risk horrific 1.8°C as early as 2030.
Studies suggest it's theoretically plausible (even though we're at 417 ppm CO2!), but even if it couldn't, at least system change would mean the ability to protect everyone from the coming horrors. Today's economy won't do that.
6a. Just to be precise: 'Globally, the percentage of species at high risk of extinction will be 9%-14% at 1.5C, 10%-18% at 2C'carbonbrief.org/scientists-rea…
6b.
Extinction is due to far more than just climate change.
Deforestation, logging, pollution, industrial fishing/agriculture, etc, etc. The whole growth Economy is the threat.
Some calculations suggest 30-50% of species could be gone by mid-century.
The IPCC's methods are failing to capture a shocking trend: carbon emissions from tropical deforestation this century are far higher than previously thought, doubling in just two decades and continuing to accelerate. 🧵
'Deforestation and forest carbon loss are accelerating.
The standard methods used by the IPCC are not spotting some of the things we’ve seen in this paper..They aren’t really capturing the trend that we’ve seen in the last two decades'.
🧵NEW: 'Whilst the “expert” community may be working quite impartially, it does so within highly constrained boundaries imposed directly through funding and indirectly through prevailing hierarchies.'
~ @KevinClimate@IsakStoddard
scientists: extreme climate change has caused irreversible losses to land ecosystems across every region of the world and will soon threaten their very fundamental aspects assuming no economic system change 🧵
1. On this chart from the new IPCC report, purple indicates very high probability of severe impacts/risks, red signifies significant & widespread impacts/risks.
The best case scenario assuming economic growth is 1.6/1.7°C by the 2040s.
2°C is expected.
3°C is possible.
Dire.
2. And the ocean?
It's being wrecked by the global economy even more rapidly and comprehensively.
The highly unlikely (implausible?) best case scenario of 1.6/1.7°C assuming no economic system change will destroy corals meaning extraordinary extinctions. carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-th…
Like human fingerprints, whale sharks have a unique pattern of spots which allow individual sharks to be identified.
They will soon be extinct due to industrial fishing and the destruction of ocean systems at 1.6- 1.7°C of global warming unless we achieve economic system change.
2. 'As climate change alters the opportunities for shelter, reproduction, survival, & food, some marine megafauna will undergo range shifts while others risk extinction.'
Global warming’s threat to the food supply is seen as far more pressing by many scientists than the melting glaciers and rising sea levels that occasionally grab the headlines. 🧵
1. Increasingly extreme events exposing millions to acute food insecurity, particularly in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, on small islands and in the Arctic.
Billions of people could suffer extraordinary misery and/or death if political/economic systems don't allow them to be protected as crop yields are reduced.
worth knowing: scientists anticipate 50% - 75% of the world's people along with millions of precious species like pollinators that are crucial for decent human survival will be exposed to periods of life-threatening climatic conditions within decades 🧵
“half (RCP2.6) to three-quarters (RCP8.5) of human population could be exposed to periods of life-threatening climatic conditions .. by 2100.”
This economy will lead to 1.6C-1.7C by the 2030s/40s wrecking the oceans.
9%-14% at 1.5C
10%-18% at 2C
12%-29% at 3C
13%-39% at 4C
Among groups containing the greatest numbers of species at high risk of extinction are invertebrates (especially pollinators)..and flowering plants'carbonbrief.org/scientists-rea…