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Mar 8 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
The IPCC's methods are failing to capture a shocking trend: carbon emissions from tropical deforestation this century are far higher than previously thought, doubling in just two decades and continuing to accelerate. 🧵
'Deforestation and forest carbon loss are accelerating.

The standard methods used by the IPCC are not spotting some of the things we’ve seen in this paper..They aren’t really capturing the trend that we’ve seen in the last two decades'.

nationalobserver.com/2022/03/04/new…
The latest IPCC reports are grim, just terrifying.

I have two questions.

Could things be even worse than the IPCC reports suggest further strengthening the already pretty watertight case for system change action?

Where are the system change headlines?

And.. “so-called carbon cycle feedbacks.. are still not well captured in most models.."

"700 parts per million (ppm) or higher, enough to yield 4ºC to 5ºC of warming”

If climate sensitivity is high, 500-550ppm could yield 4°C-5°C. (Hansen: 400ppm ➡️~3.5C)euronews.com/green/2022/02/…
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Ben See Profile picture
Mar 10
The best we can realistically hope for with this economy is unimaginable destruction of Earth's biodiversity plus unmanageable damage to human agriculture due to very high global warming impacts, habitat destruction & pollution, all by 2045. Where are the system change headlines?
1. 'Globally, the percentage of species at high risk of extinction will be 9%-14% at 1.5C, 10%-18% at 2C'.

1.75-2.5°C by 2045.

'Among groups containing the greatest numbers of species at high risk of extinction are invertebrates (especially pollinators)'.carbonbrief.org/scientists-rea…
2.

See thread:
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Mar 7
The Headlines

ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE IS HERE

"The current global growth Economy will definitely take us to unthinkable suffering, death and extinctions at 1.8°C or more of global warming by between 2030 and 2090 unless we achieve profound political and economic system change."🧵
1. 'If temperatures rise to between 1.7 and 1.8C above the 1850s level, then the report states that half the human population could be exposed to periods of life-threatening climatic conditions arising from heat and humidity.'

Corals destroyed at 1.4-1.6C.bbc.com/news/science-e…
2. If we get on to a lower emissions pathway in the coming years (emissions are rising towards record levels by 2025) we risk horrific 1.8°C as early as 2030.

Even the best case scenario which few scientists consider plausible may mean 1.8°C by the 2080s.yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/08/key-ta…
Read 8 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Mar 7
🧵NEW: 'Whilst the “expert” community may be working quite impartially, it does so within highly constrained boundaries imposed directly through funding and indirectly through prevailing hierarchies.'
~ @KevinClimate @IsakStoddard

But things may change. 1/climatechangenews.com/2022/03/04/we-…
'despite its tacit allegiance to the Davos culture, this constellation of enablers holds real power to either legitimise or undermine the status quo'

2/
 climatechangenews.com/2022/03/04/we-…
'the expert community currently just reinforces Davos, but..'

Vital, explosive observation. Another must watch from @NickGBreeze.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Mar 6
scientists: extreme climate change has caused irreversible losses to land ecosystems across every region of the world and will soon threaten their very fundamental aspects assuming no economic system change 🧵
1. On this chart from the new IPCC report, purple indicates very high probability of severe impacts/risks, red signifies significant & widespread impacts/risks.

The best case scenario assuming economic growth is 1.6/1.7°C by the 2040s.

2°C is expected.

3°C is possible.

Dire.
2. And the ocean?

It's being wrecked by the global economy even more rapidly and comprehensively.

The highly unlikely (implausible?) best case scenario of 1.6/1.7°C assuming no economic system change will destroy corals meaning extraordinary extinctions.
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-th…
Read 6 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Mar 6
Like human fingerprints, whale sharks have a unique pattern of spots which allow individual sharks to be identified.

They will soon be extinct due to industrial fishing and the destruction of ocean systems at 1.6- 1.7°C of global warming unless we achieve economic system change.
1. The distribution of whale sharks indicates the presence of plankton and the overall health of oceans.

Industrial fishing, tourism, & abrupt climate change are wiping them out.

NGOs like WWF don't want the system change we need to avoid 1.6/1.7- 5.7°C.worldwildlife.org/species/whale-…
2. 'As climate change alters the opportunities for shelter, reproduction, survival, & food, some marine megafauna will undergo range shifts while others risk extinction.'

Scientists & journalists are generally silent on the need for profound system change.frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…
Read 7 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Mar 5
Global warming’s threat to the food supply is seen as far more pressing by many scientists than the melting glaciers and rising sea levels that occasionally grab the headlines. 🧵
1. Increasingly extreme events exposing millions to acute food insecurity, particularly in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, on small islands and in the Arctic.

'considerably more evidence of projected risks..causing sudden food production losses..'carbonbrief.org/scientists-rea…
2.

Billions of people could suffer extraordinary misery and/or death if political/economic systems don't allow them to be protected as crop yields are reduced.

We're years away from shocking reductions.

Where are the system change headlines?
Read 14 tweets

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