Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Mar 8 19 tweets 3 min read
It's odd how those who constantly push this "no fly zone" story regarding Ukraine, claiming it will mean "war" with Russia...don't seem to condemn Russia imposing a "no fly zone" in Ukraine by invading Ukraine. Doesn't Ukraine have a right to its airspace.
It's not "war with Russia" if western countries want to fly in Ukraine's airspace. It's Russia that invaded. The onus is on Russia. It's Russia imposing a "no fly zone"....not anyone else. Blame Russia. Russia started the war.
How about a Right to Fly Zone…that’s how the US conducted the Berlin Air Lift, right? How come the same people that claimed Russia isn’t so powerful and we need to concentrate on China, push this “no war with Russia”?
Apparently Russia isn’t afraid of “war” with the West…it’s only a talking point in the west to fearmonger over the west wanting to fly in Ukraine’s airspace at Ukraine’s invitation.
And in Syria the US and others successfully deconflict with Russia… Don’t they???

So despite Russia and Syria not wanting US aircraft over Syria, there is no “war” between the US and Russia is there? Or with the Syrian regime
Only when it comes to Ukraine, if the west wants to fly in Ukraine airspace is this nonsensical canard of “then there will be WWIII” put forward. Why? Russia has NO RIGHT to fly in Ukraine’s airspace. It’s Russia that should be afraid of war. Not the West.
This whole nonsense about “if you support a no fly zone you support war” is like the “if you’re against the Iran deal you want war” talking point. It’s nonsense.
You can support a Right to Fly in Ukraine’s airspace at the invitation of Ukraine and not want war with Russia. Anyway why be so afraid of Russia. It’s Russia that should be worried too.
The Cold War was managed very well by both sides being careful. But the West didn’t always back down over fears of war. You can’t live always being afraid that there might be war, that gives Russia all the cards.
Remember: Russia invaded. Russia began an illegal and unprovoked war. If the West backs Ukraine, including in its airspace, that is not “starting war with Russia”…
And the US and West can test this, fly a large drone into Ukrainian airspace and land it somewhere. Put the onus on Russia. It’s not “starting a war” to fly in Ukraine airspace. You could supply Ukraine a bit using drones. There are now drones tasked for civilian airspace too…
There is nothing preventing the West From flying drones into Ukraine airspace. And that is not starting a war. It’s not Russia airspace.
The US flew U-2 planes over the Soviet Union during the Cold War right? And there was no “war with Russia”…and this isn’t even over Russia. This is over Ukraine.

The “no fly zone” straw man is ridiculous.
He fear of war with Russia also reveals a whole coterie of people who will make this same argument if there is China action on Taiwan…”oh we can’t help Taiwan, that would mean war with nuclear armed China”…think about it…
ALSO, some of those shouting about the “no fly zone means war”…are the same ones who told the US to shift from counter-terrorism in Middle East to confront “near peer rivals”…well here is a near peer rival called Russia…so isn’t this the point.
If every action by the near-peer rivals results in “don’t confront them or there could be war”…then what’s the point of preparing to confront these rivals? It can’t be both ways…the US and West needs innovative strategy snd tactics to confront Russia in Ukraine
And the biggest scam of the “no fly zone” debate is always claiming the onus is on the US or West to “shoot down” Russian planes. NO. One can send planes or drones into Ukraine airspace and put that onus on Russia. Russia likely can de-conflict as it does in Syria. Think
See you don’t have to shoot anything down. You can respond. But you can have a freedom of Ukraine airspace like the West used to back freedom of navigation or freedom of the seas. There doesn’t have to be an onus to “shoot down” anything or “start a war”
Ukraine has a right to it’s airspace and it has a right to invite other countries to use that airspace. And it is Russia that is illegally enforcing a “no fly zone”…condemn the REAL no fly zone…the one Russia is doing.

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More from @sfrantzman

Mar 8
The comparison of countries bordering Ukraine or nearby welcoming Ukrainians and Europe’s treatment of refugees in 2015 seems not entirely fair. Syrians were welcomed to some extent in neighboring Turkey and Jordan, so that’s the direct comparison: neighboring states.
It seems like an obvious thing to point out, but the reality that a country far away from a conflict won’t necessarily welcome a large number of people arriving from a very different place snd culture, as opposed to a neighboring area is an issue that deserves fair discussion
I was in Turkey, Jordan and I covered the 2015 refugee crisis in Greece and Serbia, Hungary etc. in Jordan people said they welcomed Syrians as much they could because of family and cultural tires. You can’t ignore this fact and pretend that Poland-Ukraine is Syria-Jordan
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Mar 7
Triple dipped fried chicken with garlic-ginger sweat-spicy sauce #chezfrantzman

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Mar 6
Some have seen Putin's war on Ukraine as an attempt to return Russia to the glory of the Soviet days or era of Imperial Russia...but forgive me if I missed it, but I don't think Russia under previous leaders did something so brazen with such risks, diplomatic isolation
When we think of the Soviet period, yes Russia went into Hungary and Afghanistan, but overall it did it with some pretense and what it thought is low risk to Russia. It didn't knowingly gamble on huge wars like Ukraine with unclear goals and outcome.
And if we go back to the Czars, from what I recall they pragmatically swallowed up the "near abroad" but usually it was risking much, Russia engaged in wars it always felt it would win easily; with the exception of jumping into WWI and we know how that turned out for Moscow
Read 5 tweets
Mar 3
Israel's IDF says that on two consecutive days Israelis have been stabbed at a shop(s) just outside of Hizme checkpoint;
This is a village that abuts the separation fence and some people shop there and get gas because ostensibly its cheaper then inside the checkpoint.
"IDF: Yesterday (Wednesday) during the afternoon, an Israeli civilian arrived at the Hizma checkpoint with stab wounds, claiming he was stabbed in the village of Hizma. The civilian was evacuated to a hospital for medical treatment."
Read 5 tweets
Mar 3
Thread: Russia clearly used the Syrian war as preparation for war on Ukraine. Remember how Russia went into Crimea in 2014 and into the Donbas via support for separatists...and then paused and intervened in Syria in 2015. As Syria wound down as major conflict, it planned Ukraine
NOW...what's interesting is the outrage and international consensus about Russia's actions in Ukraine are clear; but the international community should have been as outraged about Syria and has it been it might have prevented the invasion of Ukraine.
Why? Because Russia's leader felt he had impunity after Syria. He believed that while some western media will shout about Russia's actions; overall the international community won't do much and a divided West will prefer to "engage" and do endless JohnKerry-style diplomacy
Read 8 tweets
Mar 3
Huge war Europe? ✅
Country of 40 million invaded? ✅
Millions fleeing? ✅

Some media: Let’s find a way to blame Israel and shift focus to Israel…
And they do this with no other country. Qatar is a major non-NATO ally of the US and there is no obsessive commentary looking at its role.

And unlike in Qatar, large numbers of Israelis have backed Ukraine. But you wouldn’t know that from media that claims Israel isn’t.
This is an example of entrenched antisemitism. Nothing else explains the obsessive attempt to shift focus to Israel, a country far from the conflict that has no connection to it.

Imagine all this obsessive coverage of Tunisia’s portion on Ukraine.
Read 6 tweets

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