Thread by @BambroughKevin

@goldseek Probably around $500/lb. 10x. Must remember that we are talking about US$2bln worth or #uranium at todays price. Even 5x or $250/lb it’s only $10b. Some fucking nickel company has got ~$12bln in loses in the futures market at the moment…

@goldseek $500/lb adds a few cents per kWh. It’s seriously fucking irrelevant. Germany dealing with spot electricity prices of $350 euros per MWh. The world doesn’t give a shit about #uranium prices. That’s why they will go north of $200/lb on this cycle.

@goldseek Someone can double check the math here’s..

350 euros per mwh is about 38c a kWh

#uranium price change of $25/lb change (say from $25 to $50 per lb U3O8) takes the fuel cost up 0.12C per kWh

$100/lb move up is 0.5c
$200/lb move up in uranium is will be 1c per kWh

@goldseek Even $1000/lb would move the price up only about 5c per kWh

That’s how totally irrelevant the #uranium price is.

Typical electric price in Europe was around 22-24c (usd) per kWh

So spot electricity of .38c (usd) per kWh now is an increase of 14c.

14c x $200 = $2800/lb

@goldseek So in theory the uranium price would have to rise more than $2800/lb to effect prices more than natural gas is currently effecting European power prices

@goldseek USA using 55mln lbs per year approx

$100/lb price jump to $150/lb $5.5bln per year… it’s nothing. Irrelevant.

USA consumes around 4 trillion kWh per year.

4000b x 20c = is $800bln worth or power.

$5.5b / $800b = 0.688%

When you look at the national power cost…

@goldseek $100 move in the uranium price won’t even make a 1 percent difference.

$500/lb move in the #uranium price moves total electricity costs up ~3.5%

It’s seriously irrelevant in price magnitude… that’s why it’s so spoken about so little. It’s the craziest little commodity…

@goldseek Nobody cares about it but at the same time they will pay nearly anything for it.

It’s about to become dramatically short in supply because of all the reactor restarts. Cameco alone has signed longterm contracts to sell 70mln lbs in the last year or I believe.

@goldseek SPUT is rather irrelevant in the long term supply model. When the price rises enough people will stop funding it.

If utilities want to fulfill there uranium needs all they have to do is pay up to get supply security. $150-200/lb and many new producers will happily step up

@goldseek But the longer they wait to pay up the higher the price will spike and the longer it will take to have supplies come on to balance the market.

The speed at which reactors will now be restarted, extended lives and built is about to be unparalleled in uranium market history

@goldseek The price is absolutely certain to blow out beyond its historic all time highs. That’s why I’m saying $200/lb is a target in the next year… $150/lb or 3x is a lay up. $500/lb could be seen. Had someone said nickel was gonna be 100k a tonne just a month ago.. ‘crazy talk’

@goldseek $200/lb is a rational well thought out prediction. $u.un $sruuf giddy up #lfg