The backstory of how this all went down in Warsaw is both hilarious and terrifying, FYI.
From what I've heard from a senior Polish military official, the decision to send the MiG-29s to Ukraine -- clandestinely -- was taken a while ago. Then what happened?
Well, people in the PM's cabinet went around boasting of it to foreign diplomats, which may have been why Borrell shot his wad prematurely. Then the Ukrainians (Air Force and Rada) followed suit. Whoops. So much for the element of surprise!
Last night, this source messaged me: "To sum up, we will pass those fighters to UA under wraps, but I don't call it 'in secret' since this now a total farce."
They want to send them to Rammstein, too, so they're parked, de-NATO-fied and reflagged on German, not Polish, soil. Points for imagination on that one, I suppose.
What I don't know but would suspect is that Zelenskyy saw what a shit-show this had become and purposefully brought up getting fighter jets on that call with U.S. legislators to make sure the plan went ahead anyway. Indeed, look at the bipartisan support for it.
(I realize now I spelled Ramstein like the death metal band, for which I'd normally apologize but under these circumstances, I won't.)
Oh Christ, now I'm getting messages about what genre of metal Rammstein is.
So regarding that alleged FSB analyst's letter of complaint... I've gone through it a bit more carefully. These are a few thoughts and observations six days after it was posted. (Usual caveats apply.)
There are a few gross exaggerations/overstatements, such as the prediction that "global famine" will hit by the summer owing to reduced grain supplies from Ukraine and Russia.
And there are statements that seem obvious and self-evident: "I can’t say what guided those in charge to decide to proceed with the execution of this operation, but now they are methodically blaming us (FSB)..."
🧵I spoke this afternoon to a senior European intelligence official. The picture shared about what's happening in Ukraine differs from U.S. government assessments, especially on Russian losses. So let me present (without commentary) what this source said:
"From our estimate, the KIA figure on the Russian side was anywhere from 7,000 to 9,000 a few days ago."
"Bad morale, lack of manpower" is a huge issue on the Russian side. "They're calling in reservists, offering money and contracts to people to go fight and, as you've seen, relying on conscripts."
!!! The "Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Goverment, are ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MIG-29 jets to the Rammstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the USA." gov.pl/web/diplomacy/…
"Poland requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities. Poland is ready to immediately establish the conditions of purchase of the planes."
But note Warsaw is providing the MiG-29s "immediately and free of charge"; the request for (probably) F-16s is not a condition.
NEW: Ukraine's insurgency-in-waiting. I spoke to the deputy commander of a guerrilla movement already training up cadres in central and western Ukraine and conducting operations behind enemy lines in Kharkiv, Kherson and elsewhere. newlinesmag.com/reportage/ukra…
"Anton" is a retired major in the Ukrainian army, educated at Sandhurst. He was introduced to me by an active-duty U.S. lieutenant colonel (branch withheld) who was recently in Ukraine.
He says some of his forces are currently embedded within conventional Ukrainian military structures but are ready, in the event of occupation, to swap their fatigues for civilian clothes and resort to partisan warfare.
🧵Just off the phone with an officer from Ukraine's military intelligence service (GUR). Someone I've known now for four years who's often rolled his eyes at official Ukrainian government pronouncements.
A few observations/comments:
I asked how his spirits were holding up. Answer: "Now is not the time for crying; now is the time for laughing."
He meant at Russia's military performance and its enormous losses in manpower and firepower in the field.
"They have lost far more than they expected. That is why they started peace negotiations on the second day of the war."