๐งตI spoke this afternoon to a senior European intelligence official. The picture shared about what's happening in Ukraine differs from U.S. government assessments, especially on Russian losses. So let me present (without commentary) what this source said:
"From our estimate, the KIA figure on the Russian side was anywhere from 7,000 to 9,000 a few days ago."
"Bad morale, lack of manpower" is a huge issue on the Russian side. "They're calling in reservists, offering money and contracts to people to go fight and, as you've seen, relying on conscripts."
"It's not a popular war in the Russian military from what we've seen. People are terrorized, threatened with lawsuits if they decline to fight."
Anti-armor missiles are "the superstars right now."
Ukraine still has "decent air defenses, especially short- to mid- range."
One reason why Russian fixed-wing aircraft are being shot down is that "cloudy weather is forcing them to fly at lower altitudes."
"Russia doesn't have the power to keep going like this for very long. Time isn't on their side, nor do they have a recipe for winning. They can't win hearts and minds, that's for sure."
In two weeks, Russia has used up "a lot of their precision-guided missiles, a valuable commodity in their arsenal."
"As long as the Western resupply channels remain open and Ukraine still fields a decent number of fighters, then they're OK."
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