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Michael Weiss ๐ŸŒป๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Profile picture
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Mar 9 โ€ข 4 tweets โ€ข 1 min read
Don't make me play the Bayraktar song again. In Finnish. Cuz I'll do it.
"bUt dRoNes aRe 'dEfeNsIvE wEaPoNs.'"
Paint an MQ-9 Reaper blue and gold and call it a Ukrainian Khuylo.

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More from @michaeldweiss

Michael Weiss ๐ŸŒป๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Profile picture
Mar 11
So the latest Ukrainian military stats on Russian losses are out and I decided to do a little compare-and-contrast exercise between what Kyiv says and what @oryxspioenkop has verified so far with respect to destroyed, damaged, captured or abandoned units.
N.B.: @oryxspioenkop acknowledges that what is verified relies on "photo or videographic evidence. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."

So let's begin, shall we?
As ever, Ukraine defines its terms a bit differently from how we might do in the West. For instance -- and here I mean no offense to those lovable scamps at Tankist Twitterโ„ข! -- Kyiv almost certainly uses "tanks" promiscuously to include also APCs, AFVs and IFVs.
Read 11 tweets
Michael Weiss ๐ŸŒป๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Profile picture
Mar 10
So regarding that alleged FSB analyst's letter of complaint... I've gone through it a bit more carefully. These are a few thoughts and observations six days after it was posted. (Usual caveats apply.) Image
There are a few gross exaggerations/overstatements, such as the prediction that "global famine" will hit by the summer owing to reduced grain supplies from Ukraine and Russia.
And there are statements that seem obvious and self-evident: "I canโ€™t say what guided those in charge to decide to proceed with the execution of this operation, but now they are methodically blaming us (FSB)..."
Read 34 tweets
Michael Weiss ๐ŸŒป๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Profile picture
Mar 9
๐ŸงตI spoke this afternoon to a senior European intelligence official. The picture shared about what's happening in Ukraine differs from U.S. government assessments, especially on Russian losses. So let me present (without commentary) what this source said:
"From our estimate, the KIA figure on the Russian side was anywhere from 7,000 to 9,000 a few days ago."
"Bad morale, lack of manpower" is a huge issue on the Russian side. "They're calling in reservists, offering money and contracts to people to go fight and, as you've seen, relying on conscripts."
Read 10 tweets
Michael Weiss ๐ŸŒป๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Profile picture
Mar 8
The backstory of how this all went down in Warsaw is both hilarious and terrifying, FYI.
From what I've heard from a senior Polish military official, the decision to send the MiG-29s to Ukraine -- clandestinely -- was taken a while ago. Then what happened?
Well, people in the PM's cabinet went around boasting of it to foreign diplomats, which may have been why Borrell shot his wad prematurely. Then the Ukrainians (Air Force and Rada) followed suit. Whoops. So much for the element of surprise!
Read 14 tweets
Michael Weiss ๐ŸŒป๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Profile picture
Mar 8
!!! The "Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Goverment, are ready to deploy โ€“ immediately and free of charge โ€“ all their MIG-29 jets to the Rammstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the USA." gov.pl/web/diplomacy/โ€ฆ
"Poland requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities. Poland is ready to immediately establish the conditions of purchase of the planes."
But note Warsaw is providing the MiG-29s "immediately and free of charge"; the request for (probably) F-16s is not a condition.
Read 5 tweets
Michael Weiss ๐ŸŒป๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Profile picture
Mar 8
NEW: Ukraine's insurgency-in-waiting. I spoke to the deputy commander of a guerrilla movement already training up cadres in central and western Ukraine and conducting operations behind enemy lines in Kharkiv, Kherson and elsewhere. newlinesmag.com/reportage/ukraโ€ฆ
"Anton" is a retired major in the Ukrainian army, educated at Sandhurst. He was introduced to me by an active-duty U.S. lieutenant colonel (branch withheld) who was recently in Ukraine.
He says some of his forces are currently embedded within conventional Ukrainian military structures but are ready, in the event of occupation, to swap their fatigues for civilian clothes and resort to partisan warfare.
Read 4 tweets

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