Thread by @rallaf

After living in Moscow for a couple of years on the cusp of Putin‘s era, Russian affairs were always on my radar. I followed closely again since the 2011 Syrian revolution and Putin's new role as kingmaker. For me, Putin is a bit different from the one I often see described.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, I find myself disagreeing with some comments on Putin’s alleged state of mind, expectations, or position. I wish I could believe that he now feels cornered and taken aback by events, but I don’t – quite the opposite, in fact.

I don't think Putin is lying or delusional when he claims things are going according to plan. He never expected Ukrainians to welcome his troops with flowers, nor did he underestimate the capacities of Ukraine‘s army. A quick victory would have been the surprise for Putin.

In fact, this is one of the reasons for Putin’s hateful obsession with a democratic Ukraine, and its people who rejected their Soviet past with no hint of nostalgia remaining. Putin knows full well that going back to Russia is the last thing most Ukrainians want.

Armed resistance may be tougher than expected, but the loss of Russian troops in the line of duty is only problematic for Putin if numbers spiral out of control, something he believes he can avoid when Ukraine is occupied, and when killed troops are feted as heroes back home.

Unlike with far-away Syria, which most Russians didn’t know, care about or follow, the war and Putin’s justifications to invade Ukraine have been steadily seeping into public Russian discourse, convincing many that Russia is the victim and that it needed protecting.

As seen in other authoritarian states, nationalistic frenzy is much easier to whip up when a different history and narrative is fed consistently to restless people who need a common outlet for their frustrations. It’s "the others" who are conspiring and forcing us to react.

Those who don’t buy it and dare protest are "traitors" who are thrown in jail for 15 years – or worse. Again, nothing Putin didn’t expect and nothing his security and intelligence haven’t been dealing with for over two decades. For Russians, dissent is lethal.

Millions of Ukrainian refugees crossing borders into the EU is also going to plan. Putin revels in this chaos and misery, and in watching Europeans struggle with the prospect of a new immigration crisis, while exposing themselves as hypocrites in their humanitarianism.

Putin knew there would be no NATO intervention, whether with a no-fly-zone or more. His bullish statements only resulted in more western leaders hurrying to say out loud that they could do nothing for a non-NATO member. Music to Putin’s ears, and a green light to hit harder.

While the massive extent of the sanctions is probably one major factor not going according to Putin’s plan, it also serves to convince his hostage population of alleged Russophobia - they hate us because we are right, they hate our noble values and history, etc.

What’s also not going to plan is Zelensky and those he commands, making many hearts swell when we see and hear them. In a world bereft of leaders in the true essence of the word, we dare to hope that the one good guy will win and save his people, and justice will prevail.

But how long can you fight a mighty attacker who has no qualms about besieging a population until submission, or about pounding civilian areas into the ground, knowing that no help is forthcoming? Brute force worked in Syria, and it will work anywhere Putin is not stopped.

Putin doesn't care about winning a social media war with democratic audiences. He gets his kicks from his tankies, assorted groupies, and the usual knee-jerk anti-US, anti-West folks who - unironically - describe themselves as anti-imperialists.

Putin does have only yes-men around him. He knows it. When they hesitate, he makes them squirm publicly. When he sits far from his advisors, it’s theater, not paranoia due to the pandemic isolation. Putin loves watching everyone worriedly trying to analyze his moods and moves.

Putin never was a great strategist, but he is certainly not stupid. What he is, and has proven repeatedly, is that he is an opportunist who has known, until now, how to balance risk and gain. When given an inch, he’ll take miles and wait for the next opportunity. He has time.

When Obama refused to act when he could and should have, after Assad’s first chemical massacre of 2013, Putin jumped in with both feet. When Obama made sure others would not help Syrians, he effectively handed power over to Russia. Creeping Putinization followed.

And while Obama was focused on the nuclear deal at the expense of all else, Putin brought in his army and his air force to Syria, took over a port on the Mediterranean, and made sure millions of refugees brought Europe to near paralysis. Brexit didn’t happen in a void.

The only power Putin has been careful not to cross is Turkey; it is only because of Erdogan's own stakes in Syria that Russia hasn‘t yet completely destroyed Idlib. When Turkey shot down a Russian jet over Syria in 2015, it took Erdogan months to apologize. Putin did nothing.

Putin is only strong if those who are stronger act like they are weak. When the powerful stop pretending that they are incapable of reacting to Putin’s provocations, we will be able to say Putin has blundered with the folly of invading Ukraine.

I pray Ukraine survives Putin's criminality, that sanctions and the right military support help make Putin’s army retreat. But I also pray that Russians survive the hardship coming their way. They don’t deserve it, and it will be much, much harder for them to get rid of Putin.

Putin is now betting there‘s little the world can do apart from the sanctions that will hurt Russians and others too. Until now, he has been right, and when he is appeased by assurances there’s nothing else to do, he is emboldened. And there is nothing delusional about that.