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Professor Olga Chyzh

Mar 8 • 4 tweets • 2 min read

A poll done by Navalny's Anti-Corruption Fund shows that the number of Moscovites who view Russia as the aggressor increased from 29% on Feb 25 to 53% on Mar 3. #StandWithUkraine️ #StopPutin

img.pravda.com/images/doc/5/3…

As a researcher, I cannot help but admire the research design. To account for obvious sampling bias, the poll is repeated 4 over a short time period. While the absolute values are still likely biased, you can see the trend.

This question is "what is the impact of sanctions on Russia's economy?" Red denotes "catastrophic." Catastrophic increased 20 percentage points.
img.pravda.com/images/doc/5/e…

This one is "Who is at fault in this war?" The legend, top to bottom is Russia, Ukraine, the West, everyone, don't know. You can see that Russia is increasing, while Ukraine and the West decreased slightly.
img.pravda.com/images/doc/8/8…

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

Mar 10

If you’re hoping that the war in Ukraine will lead to a popular revolution in Russia, here is why it won’t. #StopPutin #StandWithUkraine 1/n

I explain this via a comparison to the popular revolution in Ukraine in 2014, which resulted in the ouster of Yanukovich--mass protests started in response to his abrupt withdrawal from negotiating Ukraine’s accession to the EU.

This was the focusing event that helped solve the coordination problem bringing hundreds of thousands of protesters to Maidan in Kyiv on the same day. In the case of Russia, such a focusing event could be some aspect of Putin's war in Ukraine, e.g. use of chemical weapons.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

Mar 5

If you’re hoping that Western sanctions will topple the regime in Russia, here is a thread on why they won’t. 1/n

To bring regime change, sanctions must prevent the leader from distributing rents to the winning coalition, ie elites will remove the leader who is no longer useful to them. Putin’s winning coalition roughly consists of two groups of elites: oligarchs and strongmen. 2/

We all love to hate the oligarchs, yet there is more to know about them than catches the eye. Beyond the gaudy décor, overpriced yachts, and extravagant parties, there are two important factors. 3/

Read 23 tweets

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