If you’re hoping that the war in Ukraine will lead to a popular revolution in Russia, here is why it won’t. #StopPutin #StandWithUkraine 1/n
I explain this via a comparison to the popular revolution in Ukraine in 2014, which resulted in the ouster of Yanukovich--mass protests started in response to his abrupt withdrawal from negotiating Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
This was the focusing event that helped solve the coordination problem bringing hundreds of thousands of protesters to Maidan in Kyiv on the same day. In the case of Russia, such a focusing event could be some aspect of Putin's war in Ukraine, e.g. use of chemical weapons.
A large protest by itself, however, does not topple a regime. What topples a regime is the leader’s response, of which there are five options:
1. Concessions, e.g. Yanukovich could have resumed negotiations with the EU
2. Ignore the protestors until they go home—may not work
3. "Conventional" police tools: tear gas, arrests, intimidation.
4. Heavy repression (e.g., send tanks)
5. Step down or flee the country
2. Ignore the protestors until they go home—may not work
3. "Conventional" police tools: tear gas, arrests, intimidation.
4. Heavy repression (e.g., send tanks)
5. Step down or flee the country
Yanukovich tried options 2 and 3 (I explain why concessions were not an option for him here: bit.ly/Bankrolling). After pretty high levels of police brutality (kidnappings, torture, snipers shooting at protesters), he stopped short of sending tanks and fled to Russia.
Why didn’t Yanukovich send tanks? Because that is a do-or-die decision—if you give the order, you better be 100% certain that it will be executed. If it is not, you are done, often literally. Yanukovich was not certain of his full control of the military & unwilling to chance it.
Now what would Putin do? Unlike Yanukovich, Putin does not have a friendly country to flee to, and he also cannot retire in peace in Russia. He is also not known for his willingness to make concessions or compromise.
His history of arresting non-violent protestors suggests that he is not going to simply ignore a mass protest. He routinely clears protestors with the use of "conventional" internal police tactics, such as threats, beatings, and arrests.
We have also seen that he is very willing to order—and his troops are willing to obey—mass atrocities (in Chechnya, Syria, and Ukraine). In fact, he has already escalated the level of repression against protesters since the war has started.
So unlike Yanukovich, Putin would not hesitate to order the army to clear the protests at any cost—and his army will, most likely, comply.
If you think that the Russian army would act different when asked to roll tanks at a crowd of Russians, let me remind you that Russians are the largest ethnic minority in the majority Russian-speaking city of Kharkiv, and you have all seen the news.
A truly mass protest in Russia would be a bloodbath, and Putin would still stay in power. The potential protestors can do this calculus too, which means that such a protest is unlikely in the first place.
Mass popular protests are not going to make Putin stop his war, and it will certainly not force him out of office.
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