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Manuel L. Quezon III Profile picture
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Mar 9 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
My column today looks at how we've overlooked the Sino-Russian alliance firmed up shortly before the invasion of Ukraine, and how its beneficiary can only be one candidate here at home: FM Jr. opinion.inquirer.net/150804/strateg… Image
Here are four readings I particularly found useful. 1. The PH-RU-CN connection pcij.org/article/7830/p…
2. A fascinating backgrounder to RU's "pivot to the East" marshallcenter.org/en/publication…
3. An assessment of CN's attitudes towards RU: warontherocks.com/2022/03/chinas…
4. A review of CN's attitude to USA and vice-versa: foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…

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More from @mlq3

Manuel L. Quezon III Profile picture
Mar 11
A thread on political earthquakes, which starts with what sooner or later depends on the character and personality of candidates. You know which of these two candidates actually likes the Filipino people. If you didn’t before, it’s become quite clear by now. Which leads to… Image
This thread by Bart: and it’s true, the songs are just part of a phenomenon of not just expression and innovation but of political renewal. These songs and pictures and even hashtags all come from the public and in many ways have overwhelmed “official” efforts. Consider that even
The color itself, pink, did not come from the campaign or the core group of the (then potential) candidate but from those self-organizing to get her to run: it came about as the color it succeeded, had come about, from below. You will remember that I myself had misgivings about Image
Read 23 tweets
Manuel L. Quezon III Profile picture
Mar 9
Will the surveys reveal a March surprise? Some analysts seem to think so: but there's more to it. A thread. In a recrnt blog entry, I put together a roundup on surveys and what they tell us (and don't necessarily tell us). quezon.ph/2022/03/07/sur…
A sample of a more traditional way of looking at the survey numbers is demonstrated by a recent column by Andrew Marasigan: philstar.com/opinion/2022/0…
A lot of political buzz was caused by @wilsonchua arguing that online data if properly looked at can reveal engagement and sentiment which are more accurate predictors of trends than traditional surveys. He presented his thoughts in a recent article: mb.com.ph/2022/02/28/can…
Read 11 tweets
Manuel L. Quezon III Profile picture
Feb 23
A work that can help us make sense of the cycles of history, is .@fromTGA's essay, "Velvet Revolutions: The Prospects" from 2009. Here is a thread of some of his ideas to ponder during #EDSA36 season.
1.
2. From .@fromTGA's essay, "Velvet Revolutions: The Prospects" from 2009
3. .@fromTGA's essay, "Velvet Revolutions: The Prospects" from 2009
Read 7 tweets
Manuel L. Quezon III Profile picture
Feb 16
Eyewitness stories by .@leahnavarro , in four parts. 1. February 22, 1986 blacknwhitemovement.blogspot.com/2006/02/squand… #EDSA32
Eyewitness stories by .@leahnavarro , in four parts. 2. February 23, 1986 blacknwhitemovement.blogspot.com/2006/02/squand… #EDSA32
Eyewitness stories by .@leahnavarro , in four parts. 3. February 24, 1986 blacknwhitemovement.blogspot.com/2006/02/squand… #EDSA32
Read 4 tweets
Manuel L. Quezon III Profile picture
Feb 16
1. Starting with this #InquirerBriefing, a thread with ten readings on the dictatorship and People Power, for a month heavy with memory for some, and which is increasingly remote for many more. #EDSA32
2. Ferdinand Marcos and Us: a reflection on the dictator's attraction and appeal. quezon.ph/2017/09/11/spo…
3. Martial Law and Parental Guilt: the family is the backbone of society; when an undemocratic appeal is made, it can be powerful. quezon.ph/2016/09/21/the…
Read 10 tweets
Manuel L. Quezon III Profile picture
Feb 13
Painting w/ a wide brush makes for vivid but misleading (because self-congratulatory) analysis. The heart of Duterte's coalition was the middle class, ditto for Dictator's Son (fueled by fear and hatred for reform + the poor). Next to last 2 sentences apply to old cronies BTW.
By all accounts the support for Voldemort Jr. cuts across classes. But anecdotally, those who had means during the dictatorship are the most shocked over Voldemort Jr.'s showing. Stunned by what their employees tell them --and not a bit afraid. But to be sure those with means
have coping strategies: they will live with the result of any election and those who believe they are in for persecution will pack up and go. The rest of the country doesn't have that luxury but then as things stand, a new middle class has arisen that is not socialized into the
Read 9 tweets

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