Will the surveys reveal a March surprise? Some analysts seem to think so: but there's more to it. A thread. In a recrnt blog entry, I put together a roundup on surveys and what they tell us (and don't necessarily tell us). quezon.ph/2022/03/07/sur…
A sample of a more traditional way of looking at the survey numbers is demonstrated by a recent column by Andrew Marasigan: philstar.com/opinion/2022/0…
A lot of political buzz was caused by @wilsonchua arguing that online data if properly looked at can reveal engagement and sentiment which are more accurate predictors of trends than traditional surveys. He presented his thoughts in a recent article: mb.com.ph/2022/02/28/can…
@iamguidodavid then interviewed @wilsonchua and a Singaporean analyst in his show, and it makes for interesting watching. facebook.com/RadyoAgila1062…
You can view this thread for an interesting question posed by someone who'd listened (and Guido's reply):
https://twitter.com/mlq3/status/1501367697929502723?s=20&t=QNHUqKzVBMb8clNe_Co-sA
Marasigan, in turn, has commented on comparing the two methods, traditional opinion surveys and using online metrics: philstar.com/opinion/2022/0…
Most interesting of all is this note, if I understand what's been said properly: what is already detectable by looking at data on engagement and sentiment, should start to be reflected in the traditional surveys --come March! So let's see.
But here is my point. Let us assume, for the sake of argument: 1. Tide is turning, because (IMHO) lessening Covid fears means pro-#LetLeniLead2022 are effectively campaigning person to person; 2. The Marcos bandwagon whether genuine or manufactured, is experiencing an enthusiasm
deficit; 3. A shift in the numbers after months of paralysis (no one's numbers majorly changed for 2 months) will make the Marcoses, almost tasting victory, panic and pull out the stops to win by any means necessary... equals a big, no, HUGE effort to change the outcome in May.
It's not enough, IF that's the case, to not just suspect, but argue and insist, the Marcoses will commit fraud. It will have to be CAUGHT and PROVEN but better yet, PREVENTED. And so how do you prevent that? It will have to be HYPERLOCAL VIGILANCE. You will have to not just vote,
you would have had to PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFY the possible leaders of Marcos operations in your PRECINCT/TOWN and CALL THEM OUT BY IDENTIFYING THEM before they can accomplish their missions. It will probably be a risky thing to do. I wonder if people will be prepared to do it.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
