Dr Dan Goyal Profile picture
Mar 9 25 tweets 11 min read
The Week In Covid.

March 8th 2021

A weekly summary of what's happening with Covid.

#TheWeekInCovid
While some world leaders try their best to convince their citizens that "Covid is Over", Covid remains the biggest killer of all infectious diseases worldwide.

➡️ 500K more deaths since 2022.
➡️➡️ 52K deaths reported in the last week...
A more detailed analysis carried out in the US (@cynthiaccox and co @KFF) showed Covid was the second leading cause of death in the US, even before Omicron hit in Dec '21

...and the leading cause of death in the 45-54 age group!!!

So, no, not a disease of the elderly!
Much to the disdain of the heartless cowards who peddle the 'it's Ok, it only kills the weak' narrative, Covid is not a disease of the vulnerable either:

...over 25% of the nearly 1m US Covid deaths occurred in those with no underlying health conditions.

Globally, Covid is everywhere at the moment! And there is a lot of it!
Since 2022 began there has been >150m cases reported. That's 50% of the entire total cases reported up to Jan 2022...in two months!
10m in the last week alone...

The top three countries with this weeks highest (reported) daily death tolls are Russia, USA, and Brazil (incidentally, among the same nations who took a 'let it rip' attitude to Covid).
All three of these countries have continually failed to manage Covid effectively...with very high excess deaths
Coincidentally, all three nations started the pandemic with some clear similarities...
Another Leader who forgot to pay attention in Science or Ethics classes, our own Boris Johnson, also welcomed Covid into the UK with open arms (but is seemingly terrified of women and children fleeing a war zone!?!?). Perhaps more ethics classes and less partying, PM!
So, while the greedy, selfish and incompetent leaders of some of the world's most powerful nations let Covid ravage their people and spread freely, those countries who had more moral and competent leadership are, this week, left dealing with the aftermath.
Hong Kong, Japan, NZ, Korea, all taking a beating trying to manage yet another variant not of their making!

Hong Kong have been hit particularly hard...

..the reason is thought to be low vaccine uptake in the elderly population combined with the transmissibility of Omicron B.2 (due to it's seeming increased viral load and longer duration of infectivity).

Unlike the disastrous vaccine hesitancy in the US - growing in other countries -, the reason for the poor vaccine uptake in HK seems to be sponsored by the HK govt's own caution over vaccinating the 80yr+ without a medical exam first - a difficult call, but costly.
No doubt this surge in cases is a disaster for these countries, but context is important...
Meanwhile, just as for TB, HIV, Malaria, pneumonia, diarrhoea-illnesses, etc... the low income countries continue to be left behind, fighting Covid without vaccines or treatments. Despite WHO reaching 1bn doses delivered.
Not a huge surprise when those countries who hoarded wealth for hundreds of years and got rich off the backs of the LICs keep electing greedy, selfish leaders who then hoard all the vaccines.

They have made promises though - so everything should be fine!?
In other Covid news:

1. The US reports an 180-fold reduction in hospital admissions for vaccinated 12-17 yr olds (2-doses).

2. After months of PM Johnson telling the public not to worry we have 'beaten Covid' - masks gone, testing going, and no legal requirement to isolate - hospitalisations are on the rise in the UK yet again.

Round and round the merry-go-round we go!
3. Some states in the US - where Covid is also one of the leading causes of death - are experiencing a surge in cases, just as Covid Mandates are being dropped and going maskless is being encouraged.

4. Added to the growing list of medical problems caused by Covid, we may need to add the risk of brain shrinkage! Good news is, vaccine is likely to protect against it and it may be reversible - time will tell.

theguardian.com/world/2022/mar…
5. And the most important good news of all:

The case fatality rate of Covid continues to fall. This week it has fallen further to 1.38%. [For reference the IFR of flu is around 0.06%, Malaria around 0.22%].

We are on track to beating Covid!
The Bottom Line:
Covid continues to wreak havoc around the world. The main difference this week is, the same leaders who failed to take it seriously enough when it first began have now openly admitted defeat

Thankfully scientists (most) haven't given up.
Please do remember there are simple things you can do to protect yourself and others. We all need to live our lives, but some simple measures can reduce the risks.

And if you haven't yet, and you are lucky enough to have access: get vaccinated asap!

Finally, while I have your attention (hopefully), can I ask you to spare a few quid for those struggling to feed their kids...

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More from @danielgoyal

Mar 10
Now that Covid is over (🤦‍♂️) let's look at how the High Income Countries have performed.

▪️Covid deaths
▪️Excess deaths
▪️Mortality rates
▪️Vaccination Rates
▪️Loss of freedoms
▪️Economy.

How did your country do?

🧵
Total number of civilians lost to Covid.
This will likely be the measure most recorded in the history books.

Note the over ten-fold difference in deaths between those who suppressed the virus prior to vaccine and anti-viral treatments being available. Image
There are though other impacts of Covid defining success. A big one is the impact on other healthcare services. Difficult to measure in its totality but here is overall excess deaths....

This is how many people died who wouldn't have had Covid not appeared. Image
Read 12 tweets
Mar 8
Pandemic Mistakes
Part 3 of 10

One of the worst pandemic mistakes, IMO:

In the UK in April 2020, a nationwide directive to ration oxygen was issued.

Rationing oxygen, in the UK!

🧵

#PandemicMistakes
A bit of background:

1. For the vast majority of Covid patients, the lower part of the lungs are unaffected. Most symptoms come from the infection in the upper airways, but don't affect our ability to absorb oxygen.

2. Severe Covid is defined as the requirement for oxygen...
...this means the lower lungs are affected.

[Picture shows Severe Covid. Unique pattern in the very lower parts of the lungs. The red = inflamed. Blue = normal. Where it is red, the ability to transfer oxygen into the blood is reduced]
Read 22 tweets
Mar 4
Covid hospital admissions rising in the over 60s.

Some tips if you do get Covid.

Job 1: Do NOT delay seeking medical care if you are concerned or there are worrying signs.

BE prepared!
🧵
1/12
If you don't have them already, get:

1. A thermometer
2. A Pulse Oximeter*

*this is a small device you place over your finger and it measures how much oxygen is in your blood. It costs about £30 and can be shared and reused.
Secondly, find out if you are in a 'high risk group'. There are new treatments available including antibodies and antivirals that if taken within 5 days can make a HUGE difference.

More info here:
nhs.uk/conditions/cor…
Read 15 tweets
Mar 3
Pandemic Mistakes
Part 2

Did we try hard enough to “Find the Sick!”?

Symptom Profiles:

Why did the U.K. not include the other common symptoms of Covid for testing and case I.D.?

Does this expose the true motives of the UK’s approach?

🧵
By now we have all learned the symptoms of Covid, at least those symptoms that lead to a PCR test in the U.K.:

1. Fever
2. Cough - “new and persistent”
3. Loss of taste or smell

But most of us are also aware that Covid can present just like a cold or flu or gut symptoms or etc,
Even from the start of the pandemic the choice the U.K. made to narrow the symptoms down seemed very odd. Undoubtably many cases - perhaps the majority - would be missed. This would mean containing the viral spread via Test and Trace would be near impossible.

As time went by…
Read 17 tweets
Mar 1
Pandemic Mistakes
Part 1

Covid Inquiry is due. The PM will no doubt try and dodge.

I am going to post on one major pandemic mistake a few times a week until.

I will focus on mistakes relating to clinical care or impact on health systems

You can judge how This Gov done!

🧵
There are three basic tenets to an infectious disease outbreak:

1. Find the sick
2. Treat the sick
3. Stop others getting sick.

Looking at the first aspect, and specifically TRIAGE - finding the sick!

➡️ Why did we leave so many at home?
Triage.
Triage has different meanings. Both apply here. The first type of triage is to carry out a brief assessment and try and categorise how serious the problem may be. Often this leads to a triage disposition - how soon is a full assessment required and who should do it?
Read 27 tweets
Feb 28
The Covid Con!

How many governments have been conned into thinking Protections against Covid are no longer required?

🧵
When Covid first reared its head in East Asia, the surrounding countries went on high alert. Perhaps it was their experience with SARS1 and MERS that kicked them into action.

Or the initial reports suggesting a 10% mortality rate.
Testing ramped up quickly, alongside significant deployment of medical personnel and field hospitals to affected areas.

Contact and Trace - honed by previous experience - was exceptional. Quickly the test positivity rate fell.

It soon became clear that mortality was <3%.
Read 22 tweets

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