Dr Dan Goyal Profile picture
Mar 10 12 tweets 4 min read
Now that Covid is over (🤦‍♂️) let's look at how the High Income Countries have performed.

▪️Covid deaths
▪️Excess deaths
▪️Mortality rates
▪️Vaccination Rates
▪️Loss of freedoms
▪️Economy.

How did your country do?

🧵
Total number of civilians lost to Covid.
This will likely be the measure most recorded in the history books.

Note the over ten-fold difference in deaths between those who suppressed the virus prior to vaccine and anti-viral treatments being available.
There are though other impacts of Covid defining success. A big one is the impact on other healthcare services. Difficult to measure in its totality but here is overall excess deaths....

This is how many people died who wouldn't have had Covid not appeared.
There is also the issue of overall chance of dying from Covid over the pandemic. Overall case fatality rate has some use here.

Protecting a population from the virus prior to their being a vaccine or treatment gave a ten-fold reduction in chance of dying from Covid over 2 yrs.
Here is how many tests conducted per positive cases found. Can affect case fatality rate.
(Qatar has been removed as it has 10 X higher than all other countries).
VACCINATION!
How did the countries do with vaccinating their population?

Fully vaccinated (X 2). [some HIC data are absent]
These are the number of boosters administered per 100 people.

Hong Kong and the US are really paying for their failure to deliver or convince their population to get vaccinated/boosted. Misinformation and mistrust in government is deadly!
So there you have it. At the moment so many countries declare their efforts to contain the virus over, we can see how many lives have been saved by those who managed to control the virus in the early stages.

Of course the pandemic isn't over, some leaders have simply given up
Some argue that the cost of containing the virus early was not worth the restriction to freedoms. But...

...effectiveness and timing of interventions determined both Covid (and non-Covid) fatality rates AND the time a nation needed to spend restricted.

Here is UK versus NZ.
The UK spent nearly three times more days in national lockdown and much longer under restrictions than NZ.

Look at this graphic of when countries decided to lockdown. The lateness of the UK was very very costly...

[March 18th, most HICs had put controls in...UK hadn't]
And the economy suffered!
A pandemic is a test of leadership and a country's infrastructure. Some have demonstrated good, trusted leadership and solid foundations. For others, Covid has exposed more than just the vulnerability to new pandemic pathogens.

I hope we learn before the next pandemic/variant!

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More from @danielgoyal

Mar 9
The Week In Covid.

March 8th 2021

A weekly summary of what's happening with Covid.

#TheWeekInCovid
While some world leaders try their best to convince their citizens that "Covid is Over", Covid remains the biggest killer of all infectious diseases worldwide.

➡️ 500K more deaths since 2022.
➡️➡️ 52K deaths reported in the last week...
A more detailed analysis carried out in the US (@cynthiaccox and co @KFF) showed Covid was the second leading cause of death in the US, even before Omicron hit in Dec '21

...and the leading cause of death in the 45-54 age group!!!

So, no, not a disease of the elderly!
Read 25 tweets
Mar 8
Pandemic Mistakes
Part 3 of 10

One of the worst pandemic mistakes, IMO:

In the UK in April 2020, a nationwide directive to ration oxygen was issued.

Rationing oxygen, in the UK!

🧵

#PandemicMistakes
A bit of background:

1. For the vast majority of Covid patients, the lower part of the lungs are unaffected. Most symptoms come from the infection in the upper airways, but don't affect our ability to absorb oxygen.

2. Severe Covid is defined as the requirement for oxygen...
...this means the lower lungs are affected.

[Picture shows Severe Covid. Unique pattern in the very lower parts of the lungs. The red = inflamed. Blue = normal. Where it is red, the ability to transfer oxygen into the blood is reduced]
Read 22 tweets
Mar 4
Covid hospital admissions rising in the over 60s.

Some tips if you do get Covid.

Job 1: Do NOT delay seeking medical care if you are concerned or there are worrying signs.

BE prepared!
🧵
1/12
If you don't have them already, get:

1. A thermometer
2. A Pulse Oximeter*

*this is a small device you place over your finger and it measures how much oxygen is in your blood. It costs about £30 and can be shared and reused.
Secondly, find out if you are in a 'high risk group'. There are new treatments available including antibodies and antivirals that if taken within 5 days can make a HUGE difference.

More info here:
nhs.uk/conditions/cor…
Read 15 tweets
Mar 3
Pandemic Mistakes
Part 2

Did we try hard enough to “Find the Sick!”?

Symptom Profiles:

Why did the U.K. not include the other common symptoms of Covid for testing and case I.D.?

Does this expose the true motives of the UK’s approach?

🧵
By now we have all learned the symptoms of Covid, at least those symptoms that lead to a PCR test in the U.K.:

1. Fever
2. Cough - “new and persistent”
3. Loss of taste or smell

But most of us are also aware that Covid can present just like a cold or flu or gut symptoms or etc,
Even from the start of the pandemic the choice the U.K. made to narrow the symptoms down seemed very odd. Undoubtably many cases - perhaps the majority - would be missed. This would mean containing the viral spread via Test and Trace would be near impossible.

As time went by…
Read 17 tweets
Mar 1
Pandemic Mistakes
Part 1

Covid Inquiry is due. The PM will no doubt try and dodge.

I am going to post on one major pandemic mistake a few times a week until.

I will focus on mistakes relating to clinical care or impact on health systems

You can judge how This Gov done!

🧵
There are three basic tenets to an infectious disease outbreak:

1. Find the sick
2. Treat the sick
3. Stop others getting sick.

Looking at the first aspect, and specifically TRIAGE - finding the sick!

➡️ Why did we leave so many at home?
Triage.
Triage has different meanings. Both apply here. The first type of triage is to carry out a brief assessment and try and categorise how serious the problem may be. Often this leads to a triage disposition - how soon is a full assessment required and who should do it?
Read 27 tweets
Feb 28
The Covid Con!

How many governments have been conned into thinking Protections against Covid are no longer required?

🧵
When Covid first reared its head in East Asia, the surrounding countries went on high alert. Perhaps it was their experience with SARS1 and MERS that kicked them into action.

Or the initial reports suggesting a 10% mortality rate.
Testing ramped up quickly, alongside significant deployment of medical personnel and field hospitals to affected areas.

Contact and Trace - honed by previous experience - was exceptional. Quickly the test positivity rate fell.

It soon became clear that mortality was <3%.
Read 22 tweets

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