I’m reliably told there is a good (or bad) reason why Priti Patel and Boris Johnson refuse to allow Ukrainian refugees to apply for UK visas when they arrive in Calais. The reason? To block legal applications by asylum-seekers from other countries. 1/8
Someone who has been directly involved in UK visa operations in the past points out to me that any UK visa office in Calais would, in theory, be open to non-Ukrainian applicants (ie the Calais boat people from Afghanistan, Syria and elsewhere|).
2/8
They could go to the Calais UK visa office and submit an asylum application. That’s the last thing the Home Office wants, I’m told. It would expose the cynicism and hypocrisy of Patel’s “two-tier” borders policy. 3/8
This policy is based on saying 1) asylum applications will only be processed if made officially while still abroad (but we will make that as hard as possible). 2) anyone who arrives “illegally” without having submitted an application will be jailed.
4/8
If a visa office opens in Calais, it would become easier for the “Calais migrants” of all nationalities to make applications. This would be be long and tortuous, no doubt, but it might at least discourage people from risking their lives in small boats. 5/8
Nonetheless – despite paying lip-service to the horror of drownings etc – the Home Office is, I’m told, determined to keep visa operations away from Calais to discourage the asylum seekers already camped out there. 6/8
The Home Office says that visa/asylum applications can only be made at a “recognised centre” but such centres are hard to find and use. In Fr, as in other countries, collection of applications/biometric data (but NOT the final decision) has been hived-off to private companies 7/8
In Paris it’s a company called TLS Contact in the 9th arrondissement. Applicants fill in an on-line form before going to a “collection point” where they hand over their passport. It can be many weeks before their passport is returned – sometimes with visa, often without.
8/8
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A good week. The 5th (or some say 6th) wave of Covid is now falling fast.
Infections – 98.9% Omicron – have dropped by one fifth in 7 days.
They are still averaging 274,352 a day, however. Acute cases and deaths, though stable, remain very high. 1/10
The government started to remove social restrictions, as planned, on Wed of this week. No more limits on numbers in stadiums, theatres etc. No more compulsory home working or masks outdoors. From 16 Feb, clubs can reopen. Standing in bars and eating on trains can resume. 2/10
The health minister Olivier Véran said yesterday: “the worst is behind us”. Rules on testing in schools would probably be eased from next week, he said. The vaccine pass may be scrapped before its promised end in July.
Hmm... just before the April elections? 3/10
A confusing week. Omicron infections have rocketed again – partly perhaps because a sub-variant of “O” has invaded France.
Nonetheless, the government has announced a timetable for gradual relaxation of social protections from 2 Feb.
1/12
The shedding of controls, such as working-from-home and max numbers for restos etc, may seem risky with cases running at 400,000+ a day for last 3 days. It’s based on accumulating evidence that Omicron is much less dangerous than other versions of C19. It's also electoral.
2/12
The electoral motive is not just my assessment. (1st round of voting in Pres election is 79 days away). Govt officials speak of a need to “give Fr people” a perspective that restrictions are about to decline. Pr. Macron will formally enter the race soon – prob early Feb. 3/12
Weekly French Covid Thread
The Omicron pandemic is raging but rising less rapidly; Delta is declining slowly (see Covidtracker graphic). Overall, there are reasons to hope that a plateau will be reached next week. In France as elsewhere, Omicron is causing less acute illness 1/10
Omicron is now 90% of new cases in France, up from 80% last week. Together the variants are producing an average of 293,867 cases a day – a 47% increase on last week, after 64% the week before. But (good news alert) acute care and deaths are “only” 5% and 3% up.
2/10
There is some push-back against Fr govt's handling of the pandemic. Teachers went on strike against school mask/testing rules and won concessions. The Senate has delayed the move from “health pass” to vaccine pass. Outdoor masks in Paris have been struck down by a tribunal. 3/10
The public prosecutor for the Annecy area says she is surprised by the global media reaction to the announcement that a man has been arrested for questioning for the 9 years old al-Hilli murders. Surprised? Really? 1/2
Prosecutor Line Bonnet-Mathis says it's an arrest like many others. "No cause to get excited. We're going to say nothing about the person being questioned. We've already had one suicide after an arrest in this case...I will give no clue to the person's identity or address." 2/2
The arrested man has been identified by his lawyer as a motorcyclist who was questioned in 2015, three years after the killings, and cleared of suspicion at the time. Now gendarmerie detectives want to clear up discrepancies in his story.
Omicron is now 80% of new cases in France and producing (in alliance with the declining Delta wave) an average of 200,000 cases a day – a 64% increase in a week. As the graphic shows, this is a “wave on top of a wave”. 1/15
So far, the explosion of mostly Omicron cases – over 300,000 a day on Tues and Wed, 260,000+ yesterday – is NOT causing an explosion of very acute cases or deaths. Hospital admissions are 35.3% up but acute care is “only” 6.3% up and deaths are “only” 14.5% up. 2/15
The government says the "ordinary" hospital cases are partly Omicron/partly Delta. But the acute cases and deaths are thought to be entirely Delta. It will be another week or so before we know if the avalanche of Omicron cases is producing a sharp spike in serious illness. 3/15
I spoke last week of a very big Omicron wave about to crash onto France. That wave is upon us. There have been over 200,000 new cases in each of the last two days, bringing the 7-day average to 121,566, up more than 125% in a week. 1/15
The government now reckons that almost two in three - 62.3% - of those new cases are the Omicron variant, compared to 1 in 3 a week ago. The Delta strain (in terms of new cases) will be wiped out in Fr in a few days’ time. Good news or bad news? It’s still uncertain. 2/15
President Macron is gambling (cautiously) that Omicron will prove to be aggressive (in spread) but relatively benign (in acute sickness/deaths). Drastic measures to reduce social mixing (such as curfews) were rejected on Monday in favour of a raft of smaller ones. 3/15