Thread by @john_lichfield

First weekly French Covid Thread of 2022

Omicron is now 80% of new cases in France and producing (in alliance with the declining Delta wave) an average of 200,000 cases a day – a 64% increase in a week. As the graphic shows, this is a “wave on top of a wave”. 1/15

So far, the explosion of mostly Omicron cases – over 300,000 a day on Tues and Wed, 260,000+ yesterday – is NOT causing an explosion of very acute cases or deaths. Hospital admissions are 35.3% up but acute care is “only” 6.3% up and deaths are “only” 14.5% up. 2/15

The government says the "ordinary" hospital cases are partly Omicron/partly Delta. But the acute cases and deaths are thought to be entirely Delta. It will be another week or so before we know if the avalanche of Omicron cases is producing a sharp spike in serious illness. 3/15

The other big Covid news of the week was President Emmanuel Macron’s announcement that he wanted to “piss off” (emmerder) the 8% of non-vaccinated adults in France until they got themselves jabbed and stopped crowding acute care beds. 4/15

I’v written elsewhere about the political motivations for his colourful remark (see below).
Was Macron justified in saying the non-vaxxed are disproportionately hogging acute care places? Yes he was. 5/15

thelocal.fr/20220105/opini…

The graph below by the indefatigable @nicolasberrod of Le Parisien crunches the stats on hospital admissions by age/vaccination status. Per 10m people, non-vaxxed 80pluses are 30 times more numerous than the tripled-vaxxed. Non-vaxxed 20-39 year olds are 25X more numerous. 6/15

Omicron is gradually displacing Delta in a wave moving from north west to south east. (See map borrowed from Le Parisien). Why should this be so? Because the wave started in the UK? Not necessarily. Many of the first Omicron cases came to Fr directly from S Africa. 7/15

Case numbers are highest in the Paris area (an incidence rate of 2,000 cases per 100,000 people/7 days). They are 83.9% Omicron. But new cases are also booming in Savoie, the Rhône valley and the south east (Marseille/Nice) where Omicron is still fighting it out with Delta. 8/15

Just how high can Omicron go? There is some evidence that cases are peaking in the Paris area. Prof Alain Fischer, president of the vaccine strategy council, said today that he believes that the Omicron wave will peak or plateau in France as a whole by the end of next week. 9/15

By then we should also know whether Omicron will bring a huge increase in acute illness/deaths and threaten to overwhelm a hospital system already choked by Delta cases. There are already 3,696 Covid cases in acute care (6.5% up in a week), almost all Delta. 10/15

There has been a flurry of stories in international media this week about a new “French” variant 1st identified in Sept. Reason to worry? Apparently not. It represents 1% of Fr cases and is not regarded as threatening. Like Delta, it will probably be swept away by Omicron. 11/15

Other stats:
The incidence rate (TDI or cases per 100,000 people/ 7 days) has more than trebled in 3 weeks to 1,753. The number of new cases daily averaged 206,091 in the last week, with peaks well over 300,000 on Tues and Wed. Numbers will probably rise before they fall. 12/15

The numbers partly reflect the huge number of tests now being performed. But the positivity rate – ie the positive share of tests - is now (28 dec – 3 Jan) 18.5%, triple what it was a month ago. 13/15

The vaccination effort has been boosted by the threat of the new, tougher vaccine pass (which should apply from15 Jan). Macron’s rude word also seems to have had some effect. The rate of both 1st and 3rd jabs has picked up even more in the last few days. 14/15

Almost 27m people have now had a booster jab (which are running at 600,000 a day). Over 53m 5-100 yr old have had a first jab (including 92% of adults) .
Hang in there.
15/15