Thread by @john_lichfield

Last French Covid Thread of 2021

I spoke last week of a very big Omicron wave about to crash onto France. That wave is upon us. There have been over 200,000 new cases in each of the last two days, bringing the 7-day average to 121,566, up more than 125% in a week. 1/15

The government now reckons that almost two in three - 62.3% - of those new cases are the Omicron variant, compared to 1 in 3 a week ago. The Delta strain (in terms of new cases) will be wiped out in Fr in a few days’ time. Good news or bad news? It’s still uncertain. 2/15

President Macron is gambling (cautiously) that Omicron will prove to be aggressive (in spread) but relatively benign (in acute sickness/deaths). Drastic measures to reduce social mixing (such as curfews) were rejected on Monday in favour of a raft of smaller ones. 3/15

If I was cynical I'd say the Fr govt has a double strategy of wait-and-hope and clampdown-by-stealth. The measures announced on Mon – 3 days home-working for offices; no drinking at bars; no eating on trains etc – have since been strengthened by local edicts by prefects. 4/15

In the Paris area (which has double the Fr average of new cases) there will be a 2am curfew for bars and bans on dancing and drinking alcohol in groups outdoors. Similar restrictions have been announced elsewhere. 5/15

Although new cases are alarming – by far the highest since C19 began – there are reasons for cautious optimism. In UK (circa 10 days ahead of Fr) Omicron is NOT YET causing a big wave of acute cases/deaths (though they're going up). In N Europe case numbers are falling. 6/15

In France, it’s too early to say. C19 serious illness/deaths here are mostly lagging indicators from the old Delta wave. Numbers in acute care rose this week to over 3,500 – up 9%, compared to 13%/16% rises in previous weeks. Deaths were 173 a day, up 9%, after 15%/17% . 7/15

All the same, this means that France is entering the Omicron era with its acute hospital capacity already under severe strain (about 63% occupied by Covid-Delta cases). Omicron would not have to be VERY severe to cause a great problem for hospitals by the end of January. 8/15

Pasteur Institute produced models during the week (partly based on Omicron stats from SA/UK) which suggest Fr could escape a hospital crisis if we reduce our contact with one another by 10-20%. This appears to be the basis of Fr govt’s decision to eschew curfews/lockdowns. 9/15

In brief, the Pasteur I suggests Omicron could cause 1,400 to 5,000 hospital cases (of all kinds) a day, depending on how much we mingle and how severe O turns out to be. New hosp admissions are now 1,500 a day, At the peak of the 1st wave in 2020 they were 3,500 a day. 10/15

In other words, Omicron could pass without serious problems. Or it could be a calamity. Take your pick. The government has gambled – partly for electoral reasons? – on the milder end of the O spectrum.
Details in a thread by @nicolasberrod below.
11/15

https://twitter.com/nicolasberrod/status/1476157979254743050

More stats.
The incidence rate (TDI or cases 100,000 people/ 7 days) has doubled in 2 weeks from 500 (almost all Delta) to 1,034 (two thirds Omicron) In Paris area, the TDI is double the Fr average at 2,287. In other words, 1 in 44 greater Parisians caught Covid in a week. 12/15

These are the kind of figures which led health minister O. Véran to speak of a “tidal wave”. Increased pre-holiday testing explains part but not all. The positivity rate – ie positive % of tests – is now over 10% - higher than when Fr locked down for a month in April. 13/15

The government is relying (too much?) on vaccination to make the difference. Over 24m people have now had their booster jabs (now available 3 months after the 2nd). The 1st vax figure continues to creep up - now 52,891,873 or circa 91% of the adult pop. 14/15

Hang in there (into yet another year).

15/15