Thread by @aysegulkayaoglu

My paper about the impact of refugees on crime is now available online at the World Development @WorldDevJournal. The link for 50-day free access: authors.elsevier.com/a/1eiQ6,6yxDKq…

🧵👇
#refugees #crime #econtwitter

I analyze the case of Turkey which is a developing country hosting largest refugee population in the world.

Firstly, on average, there is no short-run impact of refugees on crime rates (both high criminal and basic criminal court cases):

For the long-run impact, importantly, there is a staggered treatment adoption👇

So, employing the semi-parametric DiD estimation
technique of Callaway and Sant’Anna (2020), I find that there is no impact of hosting a refugee population above a threshold level.

But, it seems that treatment intensity is also different for treatment provinces:

So, I also checked the impact of treatment intensity on crime rates in the long run (using IV) and find that per capita crime rates decreased, and no effect exists on crime rates per 100,000 natives.

These results are robust to various identification threats which are explained in the paper in detail.

So, please read the paper for those discussions and for my interpretation of the results. Hope you will enjoy!