David Rothkopf Profile picture
Mar 10 8 tweets 2 min read
We will constantly have to reevaluate how much we feel we can do for Ukraine as the atrocities against it mount. By all means, let's not start a nuclear war. But, having said that, let's also keep in mind that Russia is already accusing us of having set up WMD labs in Ukraine.
They don't need us to actually do anything to make outrageous claims to "justify" their indefensible acts. And they know we are providing key weapons to Ukraine. They know we are leading crushing sanctions. They know we will soon provide Ukraine with another $14 billion.
The Russians know we have helped train the Ukrainians. The Russians no doubt believe we are providing them with all manner of covert assistance. Further, our military and theirs have operate in close hostile quarters in Syria and we avoided WWIII.
Again, I'm not saying we should do anything needlessly provocative. But we should recognize that while Russians will assert there are red lines here, many of them are blurry and typically they do not even care what the truth is.
Today they bombed a maternity ward and said that the Ukrainians were at fault, that it was not a hospital but was being used by the military. Russia lies. Every single pretext for this war and every element of this war has been a lie.
And we do have a moral duty to defend the innocent people of Ukraine as best we can. And we should not wait until it is too late, until Russia makes first use of WMDs like chemical weapons or expands their on-going use of banned weapons systems or war crimes.
Maintaining clear eyes is the best form of caution. Seeing our enemy for who they are, seeing the risks they pose for what they are, seeing the potential costs of our inaction as clearly as we may see the risks of action are all key.
I'm pretty sure that if we do that we can provide more aid, more weapons, stronger support, most of the support Ukraine requests, and take better steps to forestall future horrors than we have already done.

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More from @djrothkopf

Mar 12
World War III is not going to happen. Not as a result of this war anyway. In fact, with the strengthening of NATO and the weakening of Russia, global conflagration though not a zero possibility remains extremely unlikely. But before you go to bed this Friday night...
...give a thought to what is going to happen. A nation, already being destroyed, is going to be further shattered. Tens of thousands will die. Mothers & children. Grandmothers & grandfathers. Soldiers & aid workers. Politicians & farmers. Tens of thousands will be injured.
War crimes, already begun, will get worse. Damage, already probably over $100 billion will double and triple. Much...families, businesses, communities, cultural treasures...will be forever lost, no amount of reconstruction can restore them.
Read 17 tweets
Mar 11
The question that continues to trouble me is what happens in the event Russia does use chemical weapons? What would happen if they did create a disaster at Chernobyl? No one wins WWIII. But we've already deployed most of our sanctions options. What do Europeans do? The US?
Sadly, my thoughts to turn to Syria where the world offered press releases of condemnation after chemical attacks and in the end resigned themselves to what amounts to an Assad victory (and one for his Russian buddies.)
There are plenty of int'l institutions we could kick Russia out of...but will that achieve anything? We can offer more support to Ukraine...but what exactly? And what steps can we take to ensure it doesn't happen again? So far all the answers I see floated seem inadequate.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 11
The fact that every single act of barbarity in which Putin has participated has been, in his eyes, a success from Chechnya to Syria to Georgia to Crimea to poisoning opposition and tossing them off balconies, has led us to this point.
Socipaths like him take and abuse until they are stopped. They are not shamed into stopping. They are not lectured into stopping. Slaps on the wrist or ominous warnings will not stop them. Red lines must be enforced. Defeats must be inflicted. Losses must be substantial.
That is not an excuse for recklessness. It is an argument to be resolute and recognize our strategic goal must not be to limit the damage he does but rather to convince him that he will pay such a great price for his crimes that he will not undertake them.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 11
This is a sign that China is continuing to make the wrong choices with regard to this war. That does not mean they cannot be of help ending it. It does not bode well however for their aspirations to lead on the international stage.
At this point it should become clear to all nations that this is not a traditional, Cold War style conflict in which there are 2 points of view. This is not geopolitical business as usual. This is binary. Right vs. wrong. There's no justification for what Russia has done.
The world has spoken with remarkable clarity and near unanimity on this. Every Russian explanation for their actions has been either a lie or an outrageous lie. Every Russian promise has been broken. Russia has consistently violated international laws and the rules of warfare.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 10
I'm not going to win any points for saying this but the Biden Admin international team has been doing exceptional work from the outset. They have restored international standing, strengthened alliances, rejoined multilateral institutions, elevated US diplomacy.
The list of accomplishments is long: the leadership in this conflict is historic and will be studied & emulated for generations. But they rejoined the Paris Accord, rejoined the World Health Organization, led the global fight against the pandemic, and ended America's longest war.
Yes...the courageous decision to get out of Afghanistan was the right decision and while the exit from that country could certainly have been handled better, the net benefits were great (including giving us the bandwidth and resources to face key challenges of today).
Read 13 tweets
Mar 9
Before an Iran deal happens, a couple points:
--A deal reconstituting the JCPOA to some degree is in the interest of the US and the world
--Pulling out of the JCPOA was one of the biggest mistakes of the Trump era and measurably made Iran and its nuclear program more dangerous
--The urging of US Mideast allies to pull out of the Iran deal was misguided, not in their interests, and an error they should not repeat
--Russian involvement in the deal is necessary to getting the deal done and we should hold our noses and encourage it to happen
--It should not however, in any way change our current efforts to severely penalize and isolate Russia for their repugnant and indefensible behavior in Ukraine
--Russia should not be allowed to use the deal to achieve any gains re: the sanctions regime against them
Read 4 tweets

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