People who want to understand @RadioFreeTom caution on Ukraine options may want to revisit the 2014 @RANDCorporation "Dangerous Thresholds" on managing escalation risks in the 21st century. 1/ rand.org/content/dam/ra…
"With prospects of conflict between nuclear-armed superpowers receding in memory, few policymakers, security analysts, or military leaders have worried about the danger of wars spinning out of control or considered how to manage these risks." 2/
"More serious weaknesses emerge in punishment-based deterrence when there is significant asymmetry of stakes between parties to the conflict. An enemy that perceives that its stakes are high will be willing to bear greater costs and, therefore, will be less sensitive ... 3/
to threats of punishment. And if that enemy believes that the threatener’s stakes are low, there may be doubt that the threatener is willing to bear the reciprocal costs of escalation or pay the political price of carrying out the threats." 4/
Risks of "inadvertent escalation—that is, the mechanism that engages when a combatant deliberately takes actions that it does not perceive to be escalatory but are interpreted that way by the enemy." 5/
"Accidental escalation occurs when operators make
mistakes, such as bombing the wrong targets or straying across geographical boundaries. It can also occur when leaders fail to set appropriate rules of engagement ..." 6/
mistakes, such as bombing the wrong targets or straying across geographical boundaries. It can also occur when leaders fail to set appropriate rules of engagement ..." 6/
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