This comment speaks directly to very different understandings of what the phrase "Russia will lose in Ukraine" means. This matters because the anti-invasion coalition remains quite fragile. A thread. 1/
https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1501301610575646723
If I understand @RadioFreeTom's understanding, it is that Russia will lose because it will not achieve its stated objectives of "denazification" (regime change) & demilitarization (subjugation). Moreover, the costs of the invasion will most likely bring down Putin. 2/
For others loss is identified with actual major Ukrainian battlefield victories that drive Russian forces out of Ukraine and bring the battle to the soil of the Russian Federation, with further military defeats. 3/
Failing to achieve one's objectives & negotiating a settlement is different than fighting onward to unconditional surrender and suing for peace. The first is achievable under current levels of support and engagement; the second requires effective co-belligerency. 4/
Unity of the coalition on the former will not hold for those who want to pursue the latter definition. MiG debacle (third try by my count) shows these fault lines and fractures, even with NATO. 5/
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