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Michael MacKay

@mhmck

Mar 12

The Russian offensive in Ukraine has been mostly stopped by the defenders in all directions. The aggressors are attempting to restore combat capability and regroup troops to try to restart the offensive in Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Mykolayiv regions.

Russian fascist forces met with stiff resistance by Ukrainian defenders. Losses to troops and equipment are substantial. No operational goals have been achieved. Cogent military leadership is absent from all aspects of the enemy offensive.

The enemy undertook no offensive operations north of the Ukrainian capital – in Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts. Instead, the Russians focussed on gaining a foothold in previously occupied positions and trying to reestablish stable supply lines from Belarus.

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Michael MacKay

@mhmck

Mar 12

Due to the failure of the offensive, the Russian invaders were forced to change tactics. Significant logistical problems and stretched communications mean the enemy can't get fuel, food and ammunition to its troops in Ukraine. Russian soldiers are looting and attacking civilians.

Russian soldiers were abandoned by their officers and left to fend for themselves. They have abysmal morale.

No longer making up a coherent army, many Russian soldiers are attempting to make it back to border.

Russian invaders suffer heavy casualties in combat with Ukrainian defenders. Having thrown all its reserves into the losing battle, Russia is bringing up more cannon-fodder: "conscripts" from occupied Donbas; mercenaries from occupied Georgia; and convicts from penal colonies.

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Michael MacKay

@mhmck

Mar 12

Russia is carrying out nuclear blackmail:

Russian forces captured Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe;

captured Chornobyl and cut power to the sarcophagus;

may set fire to radioactive forest around Chornobyl;

shells nuclear facilities, such as at Kharkiv.

Because they're stuck in pre-1991 thinking, most Western nations see the nuclear threat from Russia in terms of nuclear weapons.

But Ukrainians have realistic, post-2014 thinking. They understand the Russian regime of state terrorism and confront the real threat of #PutinAtWar

"It's all about intimidation. Now the Russian leadership understands that their plans for a quick campaign have failed, and they are turning to nuclear blackmail."

–Brigadier General Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine

armyinform.com.ua/2022/03/12/ros…

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Michael MacKay

@mhmck

Mar 12

On March 11th the Russian air force bombed border settlements in Belarus. No one was injured in the attack.

The insidious provocation was carried out in an attempt to goad armed forces of Belarus into entering the war on Russia's side. 1/8
armyinform.com.ua/2022/03/12/vor…

The Russians did not conduct offensive operations in areas to the northwest of Kyiv. The enemy remained at positions along the Irpin River and attempted to restore combat capability as well as regroup troops. 2/8

North of Kyiv, a Russian offensive operation was partially successful to the southwest of the city of Chernihiv. The supply line from Belarus is especially vulnerable in that area.

In Sumy region the enemy conducted no offensive operations and brought up reserves. 3/8

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Michael MacKay

@mhmck

Mar 10

Russia's offensive against Ukraine continues into the 15th day. Ukrainian defenders are holding back the aggressors.

Over the past day the enemy focussed primarily on regrouping, resupplying and rearming. All of Russia's operational reserves are now engaged in Ukraine. 1/7

Russian invaders approaching Kyiv from the northwest are trying to break through Ukrainian defences at Poliske, Kukhari, Zhovtneve, Andriivka, Kopyliv, Motyzhyn, Buzova, Horenychi, Bucha, Demydiv. 2/7

At Siverskyi, the Russians tried and failed to break through to Chernihiv. Attempts to move as close to Kyiv as Brovary are expected.

The Russians failed to complete an encirclement of Kharkiv. North of the city, rifle regiments from Russian reserve forces are in disarray. 3/7

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Michael MacKay

@mhmck

Mar 10

Ukrainian defenders liberated the village of Baklanova Muraviika from Russian-fascist forces.

This victory protects the city of Chernihiv from being besieged and makes the enemy supply line (180km from the Belarus border to the outskirts of Kyiv) more vulnerable.

"In the area of the village of Shestovytsia, Chernihiv region, the occupiers are looking for a way to surrender." –General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The Ukrainians are close to cutting off the route south, which will trap a huge concentration of Russian forces.

"During the day [March 10], the defenders of Ukraine forced the enemy to retreat to unfavourable positions in the Poliskyi and Volynske directions." –General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Poliskyi district is west of Chornobyl, northwest of Kyiv, along the Belarus border.

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