Mick Ryan, AM Profile picture
Mar 11, 2022 24 tweets 8 min read Read on X
It is 16 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Today I will examine the the importance of the adaptation battle in war, and how it is playing out in Ukraine. (Image - BBC) Image
2/24 As always, a shout out to those reporting on the Russian invasion. This includes @KofmanMichael @maxseddon @IAPonomarenko @RALee85 @shashj @DanLamothe @ikhurshudyan @IanPannell @DefenceHQ @TheStudyofWar @siobhan_ogrady
among others. Please follow them.
3/24 It is impossible for the military to anticipate every eventuality in war. There are too many scenarios to accurately predict wartime events. As such, a key virtue for military organizations in war must be adaptability to unexpected events.
4/24 In his famous essay, The Use and Abuse of Military History, Sir Michael Howard described the problem thus: “It is not surprising that there has often been a high proportion of failures among senior commanders at the beginning of any war.”
5/24 “These unfortunate men may either take too long to adjust themselves to reality…of they may have had their minds so far shaped by a lifetime of pure administration that they have ceased…to be soldiers.” Read it all here: press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewconten…
6/24 As Williamson Murray writes, because war “is interactive, both sides have the potential to adapt to the conflict at every level…thus the problems posed by the battlespace do not remain constant. More often than not they change with startling rapidity.” Image
7/24 The exploration of adaptation has resulted in the development of a range of concepts on how adaptation occurs & how it can be applied. In military literature, the best-known adaptive cycle is Boyd’s OODA (observe-orient-decide-act) loop. Image
8/24 Frank Hoffman has also proposed a model for military adaptation which he calls Organisational Learning Capacity. It has four parts: leadership; organisational culture; learning mechanisms; and, dissemination mechanisms.
9/24 So, effective military institutions need to adapt in war, at every level, and share lessons broadly to ensure an entire force can learn from both success and failure. Military institutions must win the adaptation battle at the strategic, operational & tactical levels.
10/24 What kind of adaptations have we witnessed in this war so far?
11/24 From the Russians, they had to adapt their campaign within the first 48 hours because their attempt at a lightening conquest of Ukraine failed. This was most obvious in the north and the attempts to capture Kyiv. They had to adapt their campaign to what we are now seeing.
12/24 Further, they have experienced major challenges in the ability to coordinate combined arms warfare on the ground - it has seen them advance much slower, and sustain more casualties, than anticipated. They have therefore adapted to rely more on firepower than maneuver.
13/24 For the Ukrainians, they have clearly recognised that the Russians have poor rear area security. They have adapted their operations to fight the Russians in the rear areas. It is hard for the Russians to advance when they have to constantly look over their shoulders.
14/24 The Ukrainians also appear to have adapted based on the big inflow of western crew served anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons. This isn’t to say they did not have them previously. But it appears these now have greater emphasis in Ukrainian operations.
15/24 Finally, the Ukrainians have adapted in the info environment. Not only did they seize the initiative at the start of the war, they have learned and evolved in a tactical, operational and strategic influence fight against Russian misinformation. (Image - @IAPonomarenko) Image
16/24 There will be many other adaptations on the ground we are not seeing. In due course, we will need to study other military adaptations – from both sides – that will emerge.
17/24 Finally, what military adaptations might we see in the near future in Ukraine?
18/24 The Russians are clearly still attempting to improve their ability to plan and coordinate large scale ground maneuver. We may see them adapt their communications to be more secure, improve logistics, and replace incompetent commanders to improve tactical performance.
19/24 We may see increased Russian operations in the west as they adapt their overall campaign. They will need to halt, or severely restrict the flow of western arms and other aid, into Ukraine. This will force Ukraine to adapt is defensive campaign.
20/24 From the Ukrainians, we may see an #adaptation to their overall scheme of defence where they start focussing more on support to insurgent forces in areas already captured by the Russians. At the same time they will need to sustain conventional operations.
21/24 The Ukrainians are also adapting their tactical force structure to absorb foreign combatants and support personnel. Given training, language and cultural differences, this will be a significant adaptation for them to manage.
22/24 As I note in #WarTransformed, military organizations are never at a steady state. The rapid pace of change means that they will be adapting at each level concurrently and doing so constantly. This adaptation battle is what we are seeing play out now in Ukraine.
23/24 There are other good references on this topic. Here are just three of my favourites – among many – on the topic of military adaptation. Image
24/24 Adaptation is a central component of war, and a 'learning culture' is key to institutional adaptation. There will be more adaptations to observe in Ukraine in the days & weeks ahead. I will take a break tomorrow, and return with my daily thread on Monday. End.

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More from @WarintheFuture

Jun 2
The spectacular Ukrainian attack on multiple airbases today highlights the progress that #Ukraine has made building an effective long-range strike capability since 2022. There are many lessons that western military organisations might take from this. But there are also some insights on this war, and the future of war, as well. 1/5 🇺🇦 🧵Image
2/ The attacks, part of a longer campaign to place cumulative pressure on Russia’s economy, political leaders and war-making capacity, will probably not be a decisive turning point in the war. They will however have a military impact.
3/ Military impacts include a reduction in Russian missile carrying / launching aircraft, a reassessment of the locations of these aircraft, possible changes in the air and drone defences at Russian bases, as well as a nice morale bump for the Ukrainians.
Read 5 tweets
May 29
In the coming months, Russia will execute a series of campaigns in #Ukraine to exploit western political discord and achieve a decisive outcome before the end of 2025. What might this look like and what are Putin's goals? 1/5 (Image: @DefenceU) Image
2/ What is Putin trying to do? Putin has, so far, successfully strung the American president along without any negative impacts. He will try to continue this while watching with glee the corrosive relationship between Trump and Zelenskyy.
3/ Putin will have a series of objectives to achieve by the end of this year including: Image
Read 5 tweets
May 25
I have just published my weekly update on war and global conflict. This week, a focus on Russia unleashing larger aerial assaults on Ukraine's cities and the prospects for a stepped-up Russian offensive in Kharkiv. 1/5 (Image: @maria_avdv) Image
2/ This weekend, we see Putin conform to his worst instincts & unleash large-scale missile & drone attacks on Ukrainian cities. Dozens of Ukrainians have been killed or wounded. His massive attacks on Ukraine over the weekend are indicative of Putin’s mindset now: “Trump has walked away so anything goes.”
3/ Putin hardly possesses a strong set of cards however. Even if he was to agree to some form of ceasefire now, Putin has very little to show from his three-plus years of war. This is why the ground offensive, which will increase in tempo, is so important to Putin. He really needs a decisive outcome from the 2025 offensive.
Read 5 tweets
May 20
The U.S. President, Donald Trump, had another conversation with Russia’s president today. The two-hour conversation focused primarily on Ukraine peace negotiations but also covered other topics related to the America-Russia relationship. 1/5 Image
2/ The discussion between Trump and Putin indicates that we are at the start of a new phase in the Ukraine War, and in negotiations over war termination. America has cast off any pretentions of being a central player in peace negotiations moving forward. In essence, Trump has done what many feared in the lead up to the November 2024 presidential elections. He has thrown Ukraine under the bus in the hope that he can make money in Russia.
3/ Putin has been encouraged and enabled to continue his brutal war against Ukraine by Trump stepping back from any important role in influencing Russia’s aggressive behaviour or negotiating peace. The people of Ukraine will suffer most because of this.
Read 5 tweets
May 14
Western governments and military institutions face an array of contemporary warfighting challenges which require rapid solutions. It comprises an intellectual deficit in our military institutions. What are they, and how might they be addressed? 1/7 (Image: @DefenceU) Image
2/ The ground war remains largely static. Where advances have been made, they are achieved at very large costs. The drone & missile war has more dynamism. However, it is still yet to prove politically or strategically decisive.
3/ Western military institutions face 5 significant warfighting challenges which require solutions. There is a significant body of evidence for these from Ukraine, and to a lesser degree, from conflicts in the Middle East & South Asia, as well as from Chinese activities in the Pacific.
Read 7 tweets
May 11
I have just published my latest weekly update on the war in #Ukraine, and the competition/confrontation with China in the Pacific. This week: Xi and Putin's are 'Friends of Steel', the back and forth of Ukraine peace negotiations, Russia's declining returns on its massive casualties. 1/6 🧵🇺🇦 (Image: @DefenceU)Image
2/ Peace negotiations continue, without much progress. European leaders visited Ukraine this week and endorsed along with @ZelenskyyUa a 30 day ceasefire in the war. Trump has also called for a 30 day ceasefire.
3/ Putin on the other hand has proposed direct Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul in the coming week. Putin did not offer to extend his three-day truce (the parade is over and Xi is heading home).
Read 6 tweets

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