Thread by @Telegraph

🇷🇺 How Putin could be removed from power – and who would replace him

‘Vladimir Putin is in for the fight of his life’ writes Mark Galeotti – but how could the Russian leader be toppled?

Thread 🧵
telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/1…

For 22 years he was the one constant of Russian politics, but no wonder people are thinking much more sharply not only about a Russia after Putin, but how that may be brought about...

‘His brutal and ill-conceived war in Ukraine has left his army mired abroad and an economy reeling under unprecedented Western sanctions at home.'

🇺🇦 'That a military machine in which Putin has invested so much for so long could stumble and fall as soon as it steps into Ukraine'

On Monday, Putin signalled that he was willing to cut his losses.

'Having previously indicated that he wanted to take the whole country – to, as he put it, “denazify” it – now he is only seeking Crimea and the south-eastern Donbas region'

❔However, rumours are multiplying...

'There are those in Russia and beyond wondering if mortality will do the job.'

Might his strange terror of infection – never mind those comically long tables, be a sign he is suffering from a disease weakening his immune system?

🇷🇺 'It is hard to see him standing down voluntarily. He periodically toyed with handing the presidency to a successor, perhaps retaining some “father of the nation” role'
telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/1…

In theory, Putin could be removed through the constitution.

📜 Article 93 allows for impeachment on the basis of serious crimes. Yet that requires not only a two-thirds vote in both chambers of parliament, but also the consent of the Constitutional and Supreme Courts

🌍 'The most extreme option some in the West are openly discussing is the prospect of outright assassination'.

This is highly unlikely, not least because the security precautions around “the Body”, as Putin is known by his security detail, are massive, complex and comprehensive

❓ If mortality, muscle or machination do see Putin leave power, though, who might succeed him?

🟤 Mikhail Mishustin

'The 56-year-old could be the obvious choice for a technocratic successor, but he has not yet been at the centre of power long enough to build himself a network of clients and allies'

🟤 Sergei Shoigu

'Defence minister Shoigu might be the kind of savvy strongman at once able to wield the muscle to topple Putin and also the political skills to reassure the rest of the elite'

🟤 'The younger generation is made up of, to be blunt, pragmatic kleptocrats'.

'They may not dare to turn against Putin now, as their fortunes and freedom are in his hands, but they are unlikely to want to continue his crusade against the West if they can possibly avoid it'

🗣️ 'It may seem almost inconceivable that Putin’s reign could end any day soon, but now he has made an all-out gamble on war in Ukraine, all bets are off'

Read the full analysis here 👇
telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/1…