Unpopular opinion: The day Putin accepts a ceasefire in 🇺🇦 will be the worst day in Ukrainian history.
The entire world will pressure Kyiv (@ZelenskyyUa) to accept the offer, he must/will, and whatever is under Russian control at this moment will never be given back to Ukraine.
The entire world will pressure Kyiv (@ZelenskyyUa) to accept the offer, he must/will, and whatever is under Russian control at this moment will never be given back to Ukraine.
And the alternative is even worse.
There could be a mutiny after the president accepts the offer or parts of the Ukrainian army keep fighting despite political orders – and suddenly Ukraine turns into the “bad guy”, not willing to accept Russian “peace” and the new reality.
There could be a mutiny after the president accepts the offer or parts of the Ukrainian army keep fighting despite political orders – and suddenly Ukraine turns into the “bad guy”, not willing to accept Russian “peace” and the new reality.
I personally think this moment will come rather sooner than later.
Probably shortly after the fall of Mariupol and the consolidation of the aspired “LNR/DNR” borders along the administrative borders of Luhansk and Donetsk.
That’s the moment, Putin can sell the war as a success.
Probably shortly after the fall of Mariupol and the consolidation of the aspired “LNR/DNR” borders along the administrative borders of Luhansk and Donetsk.
That’s the moment, Putin can sell the war as a success.
One last remark: There is a tiny chance, Putin is insane enough to keep fighting and try conquering all of eastern, southern and central Ukraine.
In this case, the military and political outcome is entirely unpredictable – for Ukraine, Russia and the world.
In this case, the military and political outcome is entirely unpredictable – for Ukraine, Russia and the world.
As expected. Russian side says deal may be signed within 2 or 3 days.
🇷🇺 & 🇺🇦 approaching “common position”.
Such a deal will -maybe not in written words, but factually- declare large parts of Ukraine either “Russian” or “people’s republic” of something.
ria.ru/20220313/progr…
🇷🇺 & 🇺🇦 approaching “common position”.
Such a deal will -maybe not in written words, but factually- declare large parts of Ukraine either “Russian” or “people’s republic” of something.
ria.ru/20220313/progr…
I estimate the deal will include a withdrawal of Russian forces from Kyiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv and Kharkiv regions, so Zelensky can present himself as the savior of 🇺🇦 statehood & identity.
In return, occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhia, Crimea and Kherson will go to 🇷🇺.
In return, occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhia, Crimea and Kherson will go to 🇷🇺.
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