Thread by @ramez

This is an incredible analysis of how Putin's invasion of the world will re-order the global world, largely for the better. By a leading Chinese policy thinker, in Shanghai, originally written in Chinese. Brief thread, but read the whole thing. uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-… 1/

Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor’s Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor. 2/

He writes that Putin's invasion of Ukraine will lead to:
1. Possibly an escalation of the war beyond Ukraine.
2. Certainly Putin's degeat.
3. The United States regaining leadership in the Western world, and the West being more united.
3/

4. A new "Iron Curtain" falling globally, this time dividing democracies from authoritarian regimes, and extending into Asia.
4/

5. Growth in the power of the West, in both military strength and the strength and importance of western institutions. Greater hard power and soft. 5/

6. Further isolation of China, as the US, Europe, and also Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Australia turn against China.

"China will not only be encircled militarily ... but also challenged by Western values and systems." 6/

He closes by saying that China has 1-2 WEEKS in which to make a choice. And basically says that China should choose the West, and use its influence over Putin to end the war and bring him to heel. It says that China is the only nation that can. I don't disagree. 7/

The whole thing is incredible, and very clearly argued. Read the whole thing here in the English translation. It's not more than a 10 minute read. uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-…

The original Chinese text is on the same page (link at the bottom). Remember, this is written by a senior Chinese policy thinker in Shanghai. It's incredible. /fin

Naturally I found one typo and one error in use of words in this thread right after posting it. Grrr, @Twitter, when will you let me fix these? <ironically raised fist>

Postscript:
1. The original article by Hu Wei has been censored inside of China.
2. Another Chinese policy thinker has published a rebuttal. (mp.weixin.qq.com/s/WCcXCEGZdsqL…)

Put together, these suggest that Xi and China are unlikely to listen to this advice, and will back Putin. PS1/

Postscript 2:

https://twitter.com/ramez/status/1503076043443228674?t=qSaRefdafVmZQiFbmjrjyg&s=19

PS2/

Postscript 3: This points out that Hu Wei's article was published by the US Carter Center & that there's no chance his advice will be taken by China. I largely agree with Hu Wei's analysis. I also agree that Xi is ignoring it. China is choosing Putin. zububrothers.com/2022/03/13/don… PS3/