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Mar 13 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The Battle of Aleppo, a city of 4.6 million people (1.5x the population of Kyiv) lasted 4 years. 1/
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of…
Aleppo is one of the oldest cities in the world, with evidence of people living there since 5,000 BCE. It sounds amazing. I want to visit it. One day, when Syria is free (let's hope) I intend to. 2/
You can read more about Aleppo here: 3/ en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleppo
And read more about Kyiv, itself an amazing city, here: 4/ en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv

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Ramez Naam Profile picture
Mar 13
This is an incredible analysis of how Putin's invasion of the world will re-order the global world, largely for the better. By a leading Chinese policy thinker, in Shanghai, originally written in Chinese. Brief thread, but read the whole thing. uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-… 1/
Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor’s Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor. 2/
He writes that Putin's invasion of Ukraine will lead to:
1. Possibly an escalation of the war beyond Ukraine.
2. Certainly Putin's degeat.
3. The United States regaining leadership in the Western world, and the West being more united.
3/
Read 13 tweets
Ramez Naam Profile picture
Feb 28
Thread of threads on how the US and Europe can advance energy policy to weaken Putin and reduce his leverage over Europe and the US. First, here's the US policy response we could have now. (1/n)
This energy bill to weaken Putin and reduce his leverage on the US and Europe can be passed through reconciliation and be filibuster-proof, if necessary. (2/n)
Any successful energy policy to weaken Putin has to address BOTH oil (his main source of revenue) and gas (his leverage over Europe). (3/n)
Read 6 tweets
Ramez Naam Profile picture
Feb 28
Thread. Two large, sophisticated, data-driven analysis of the genetics and location of early Covid cases in Wuhan find that it's extremely likely that Covid crossed over from animals at the market. At least twice. 1/n
nyti.ms/3vkjo15
"“When you look at all of the evidence together, it’s an extraordinarily clear picture that the pandemic started at the Huanan market,” said Michael Worobey, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona and a co-author of both new studies." 2/n
This probabalistic analysis of early Covid spread doesn't produce a smoking gun. But it is much more consistent with spread from animals to humans in the Wuhan market than it is with a lab leak origin. 3/n
Read 14 tweets
Ramez Naam Profile picture
Feb 13
I think there's a high risk that what Putin is doing by threatening Ukraine will backfire on him. Short thread.

1. Putin bet that NATO wouldn't come together. But Biden has done a remarkable job pulling the alliance back together. 1/5
2. Putin believes he has a gas weapon against Europe, but his threats - let alone an invasion - will only accelerate Europe finding alternatives to Russian gas.

2/5
3. If Putin backs down now (the best for everyone) he loses. He's strengthened NATO and Biden. He's probably accelerated Europe finding alternatives to Russian gas.

3/5
Read 5 tweets
Ramez Naam Profile picture
Feb 7
Of all the ecological impacts of climate change, the one that scares me the most is the loss of coral reefs. New research suggests this could happen much earlier than we thought (at 1.5C of warming, or ~20 years from now, rather than at 2C of warming). phys.org/news/2022-02-c… /1
Coral reef systems are the "rainforests of the sea", hosting an estimated 25% of the biodiversity in the oceans. They also provide the protein (fish) that roughly 500 million people depend on. Theyn protect coastal areas from storms and erosion. And they're beautiful. 2/
Previously we were thought that corals would be almost wiped out by 2C of warming. This new research uses higher resolution modeling to find that even at 1.5C of warming, most reefs would be exposed to heat-driven bleaching events too often to recover. phys.org/news/2022-02-c… 3/
Read 6 tweets
Ramez Naam Profile picture
Jan 7
Ketan is correct here. For all the optimism in the slides I shared yesterday, we are not moving at the speed required to stay below 1.5C of warming. Staying below 2C of warming is still doable, but requires concerted action. I would place our current path as 2-2.5C. 1/n
As @Peters_Glen pointed out yesterday, 1.5C is, if not mathematically impossible, certainly extremely implausible from a policy standpoint. 2/n
Even net zero by 2050 looks daunting (though within our power to achieve). If I were to look at our technical & policy progress, I see us being able to achieve something close to SSP 4-3.4: Cutting emissions in half by 2050, and to zero by 2080. Worst case- IMHO is SSP2-4.5. 3/n
Read 8 tweets

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