I did an interview the other day in which I was asked when WA’s omicron wave will peak. Naturally, it’s something most people want to know, but in retrospect I think it’s the wrong question. Instead, we should ask how we can minimise the impact of the current and future waves.
The omicron wave won’t be the last. Why would it be? Look at the UK: the first wave of the original strain was followed by the alpha variant, then the delta variant, omicron BA.1, and now omicron BA.2. An average of ~100 people continue to die per day. coronavirus.data.gov.uk
We can expect more waves in future, driven by waning immunity and/or the emergence of new variants.
If we allow high levels of transmission, we create the conditions for new variants to emerge. It’s a never-ending cycle, which harms lives and livelihoods.
I don’t think we’ll ever eradicate SARS-CoV-2, so we need to ask how we can reduce the risk of new variants emerging and their associated impact. The answer is to slow transmission, primarily with measures that clean the air.
Masks (N95, P2/FFP2, KF94) also have a role to play.
We need to improve ventilation in our workplaces, schools, shops, restaurants, gyms and bars. This means modifying ventilation systems to bring in more fresh air from outside, opening windows, and cleaning the air with HEPA filters.
These kinds of measures don’t negatively affect freedom. No one is inconvenienced by better ventilation.
Sooner or later we’ll have to make these changes. Let’s skip the unnecessary hospitalisations, long COVID, and deaths, and start working on the solution: #VaccinesPLUS.
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Younger kids now have to wear masks in Perth. How are they coping?
👧 “Really excited, ‘cause I quite like wearing a mask.”
🧒 “I’m kind of fine with it, but the mask is kind of sweaty on the inside.”
If this is the worst TV could find, I’d say most kids are doing just fine.
Most of the concern around children and masks is unfounded. If you explain why masks are needed in age-appropriate language, most kids will want to do the right thing and protect themselves and others.
Kids have a strong sense of fairness that many adults have sadly lost.
In the few, genuine cases where children struggle with a mask, exemptions can be made to excuse those children from having to wear one.
For the rest, masks may be a bit annoying at times, but it’s not forever, and better than ending up in hospital.
A new study supported by the CDC shows that in 2021, there was more COVID-19 in US schools than the general community (see lines on the left).
But when masks were introduced at school, cases in schools plummeted (see lines on the right). cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
Both students and staff members were more likely to have COVID-19 than the general community, as shown in this graph (depicting the ratio of school to community cases).
The closer the curves are to 1 on the horizontal axis, the closer schools matched the general community.
The graph also shows that COVID-19 cases were lower in schools that required students and staff to wear masks.
The incidence was 23% lower in school districts that had a mask requirement.
Today, Western Australia ended the border controls that have kept its people safe for two years. During that time, only 10 people died from COVID-19, making the state’s response one of the world’s best.
Unfortunately, the emergence of the omicron variant finally made Western Australia’s elimination strategy unviable.
Nonetheless, the Government continues to follow a suppression strategy for now. Better vaccines may make this easier in future.
I’m not concerned by the border reopening, because it will now make little difference to the trajectory of the omicron epidemic in Western Australia.
The most important thing was that we bought precious time to get third dose levels up.
Is the pandemic really over? What’s likely to happen over the next 12-18 months? The UK’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) outline four possible scenarios ranging from optimistic to pessimistic.
In the best case scenario, the vaccines retain their effectiveness against new variants (which do not show increased transmissibility or severity). Antiviral drugs stop people from getting really sick and these drugs remain effective. Only minor seasonal/regional outbreaks occur.
In the central optimistic scenario, waves of infection continue to occur, driven by waning immunity and/or new variants. There will be good & bad years; some variants will cause more severe disease. Immunity protects most people but resistance to antiviral drugs begins to appear.
COVID-19 can cause lasting damage to the cardiovascular system, even in “mild” cases that didn’t require hospitalisation during the acute phase of infection.
A new study shows we’re going to see more heart disease, strokes, blood clots & other problems.🧵 nature.com/articles/s4159…
The authors have a warning for governments letting the virus spread:
“Governments and health systems around the world should be prepared to deal with the likely significant contribution of the COVID-19 pandemic to a rise in the burden of cardiovascular diseases.” (Continued 👇.)
“Because of the chronic nature of these conditions, they will likely have long-lasting consequences for patients and health systems and also have broad implications on economic productivity and life expectancy.”
Apart from lost quality of life, COVID-19 is going to be expensive!
I suspect a single-dose booster won’t be enough against the omicron strain, because it’s changed so much it’s almost like a new virus. One dose wasn’t enough against the original strain, either. Two doses seems more realistic.
Our best bet for bringing the pandemic to a end may be nasal spray vaccines.
Early experiments suggest these may be more resistant to variants and do a much better job of preventing infection and blocking transmission than the current generation of vaccines.
But vaccines alone aren’t going to end the pandemic.
Vaccination is extremely important but we also need to make some changes to the way we live our lives. Hopefully many of these changes can be unobtrusive, such as improving ventilation & using HEPA technology to clean the air.